建信期货沥青日报-20251218

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2602 opened at 2,877 yuan/ton, closed at 3,012 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,014 yuan/ton, a low of 2,855 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.58%, and a trading volume of 504,000 lots; BU2603 opened at 2,891 yuan/ton, closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,017 yuan/ton, a low of 2,877 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.9%, and a trading volume of 171,000 lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in North China and Shandong continued to decline, while prices in other regions remained generally stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures hit new lows, negatively impacting spot market sentiment [6] - Supply: After the resumption of asphalt production at Guangzhou Petrochemical in South China, the operating rate is expected to remain stable, but there are no new resumption plans after the switch to residue production in Shandong, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [6] - Demand: Cold snaps will continue to affect most parts of China in the next ten days, with widespread rain and snow in central and eastern regions. Although temperatures will gradually rise after the 14th, demand is unlikely to receive significant support due to seasonal factors [6] - Operation Suggestion: The market is trading on the potential impact of US sanctions on Venezuela's oil exports and the widening discount of Venezuelan crude. Pay attention to raw material supply and operate with caution [6] Group 3: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2,820 - 3,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. International oil prices and asphalt futures hit new lows overnight, negatively impacting the spot market. However, prices rebounded in the morning due to supply - side factors, and the spot market remained cautious. Given weak rigid demand and ample supply, prices declined slightly [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. Zhongyou Gaofu is about to halt production, but increased production at Maoming Petrochemical has led to a supply increase. Sinopec's orders are being filled, and prices are expected to decline. Social inventories and traders are holding prices stable for now [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes South China asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, daily asphalt operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking spread, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][12][13][16]