建信期货工业硅日报-20251218

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Report type: Daily report on industrial silicon [7] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,470 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The trading volume was 346,284 lots, and the open interest was 210,810 lots, with a net increase of 8,547 lots. The top twenty long positions increased by 8,092 lots, and the short positions increased by 12,857 lots [4] - Spot prices remained stable. The Sichuan 553 price was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the Yunnan 553 price was 9,100 yuan/ton. The Sichuan 421 price was 9,900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,500 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The southwestern production areas have fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the production decline space is limited. The production in the second week of December was 82,000 tons, and the monthly expected production was 360,000 tons [5] - On the demand side, the production reduction of polysilicon led to a monthly output decline to about 110,000 tons. Organic silicon enterprises fulfilled the production reduction and price increase plan in the November meeting. The operating rate in the second week of December dropped to 69.56%, a decrease of 4.73 percentage points from the previous week. The supply and demand remained in a loose pattern [5] - The current industrial inventory reached 460,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.40%. The futures inventory was 44,000 tons, a significant decrease compared with the same period last year. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures price weakened rapidly and was at a discount, resulting in insufficient return power [5] - The fundamentals lack improvement expectations. The spot price remained stable. After the basis widened rapidly, the support for the futures price increased. It is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern [5] Group 3: Market News - On December 17, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8,815 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - In the second week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 446,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.22% and a year-on-year increase of 30.40% [6] - The organic silicon DMC market remained stable. The current DMC quotation was 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/ton. After the price increase of major organic silicon products, the new order transactions of enterprises were average, and the inventory pressure of enterprises was not large. It is expected that the market will operate stably in the short term [6] - The polysilicon spot price stabilized as a whole. Enterprises were determined to support prices, and the quotation of individual enterprises increased. The downstream's willingness to purchase polysilicon was low, and it was difficult to see an increase in demand in the short term. The polysilicon inventory continued to increase slowly, and the inventory pressure further suppressed the trading activity in the spot market. It is expected that the spot trading price of polysilicon will probably remain stable in the short term [6]