建信期货棉花日报-20251218

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: December 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure and adjusting, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic cotton market has support from domestic demand, while the overseas market shows limited adjustments and an expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets [7][8] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Spot market: The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 15,144 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiated price for machine-picked cotton in North and South Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around 14,750 yuan/ton on a net weight basis [7] - Cotton yarn market: Trading is average, with few new orders. Only high-count yarns are selling well. Cotton yarn prices are temporarily stable, but some large manufacturers are offering significant discounts to clear inventory. Xinjiang textile enterprises are barely making a profit, while inland enterprises continue to lose money [7] - Grey cloth market: Trading has improved slightly in some areas but remains dull overall. Orders are being repeated quickly, but shipments have not increased significantly [7] Macro and Overseas Markets - Macro: The prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine seems to be strengthening, causing oil prices to decline continuously and dragging down the performance of the external market [8] - Overseas: The USDA's December global cotton supply and demand report shows a slight decrease in both production and consumption, with a slight accumulation of global ending stocks. US cotton production has increased slightly, and stocks are mainly accumulating. Overall, the adjustment is limited, and US cotton remains in a weak oscillation. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets continues to widen [8] Domestic Market - Supply: As of December 16, 2025, the cumulative national inspection volume is 5.5196 million tons, an increase of 79,100 tons from the previous day. The commercial inventory is still in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons at the end of November [8] - Demand: The current operating rate has decreased slightly. The profit and cash flow of textile enterprises have deteriorated marginally, but the pressure on finished product inventory is still not significant. In November, the domestic revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, indicating that domestic demand support still exists [8] Group 4: Industry News - As of December 16, 2025, 1,082 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton in accordance with the reform plan for the cotton quality inspection system. The cumulative national inspection volume is 24,451,412 bales, totaling 5.5196 million tons, an increase of 79,100 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang is 24,181,404 bales, totaling 5.4591 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in inland areas is 151,147 bales, totaling 33,500 tons [9] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][18]