建信期货生猪日报-20251218

Report Information - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot market is boosted by the demand for curing and enema, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend The supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend, and the demand elasticity before the Spring Festival still exists However, the concentrated second - fattening in October and the continuous release of production capacity form double supply pressure, which continues to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts, but the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent increase in northern epidemics has led to a low - level rebound following the spot market, with an increasing frequency of bottom oscillations [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 17th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened higher, then rose and fell back, and oscillated higher, closing in the positive territory The highest price was 11,550 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,435 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day The total index position increased by 10,993 lots to 361,611 lots [6] - Spot Market: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.60 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - Supply Side: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend until the first half of next year In October, the second - fattening and weight - retaining were concentrated, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is currently relatively high, slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% Currently, the overall completion progress of groups in multiple regions is slightly slow, and there is a certain increase in acquisition difficulty due to the reduction of some channels [7] - Demand Side: Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December With the continuous cooling of the weather, the curing and enema are increasing, the terminal consumer demand is rising, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises significantly supports the slaughter volume The slaughter volume and the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises have increased On December 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 195,000 heads, an increase of 4,200 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 29,000 heads [7] - Policy Side: China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products originating from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared with domestic consumption [7] 2. Data Overview - Slaughter Volume: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36% The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - Breeding Profit: As of December 11th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 146 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 11.5 yuan/head The average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 264 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 yuan/head [13] - Breeding Cost: As of December 11th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.09 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg The expected cost of purchasing piglets for fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 11.41 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg [13] - Slaughter Weight and Proportion: In the week ending December 11th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.63 kg, a decrease of 0.19 kg from the previous week The proportion of pigs slaughtered under 90 kg was 5.43%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous week The proportion of pigs slaughtered over 150 kg was 6.9%, almost the same as the previous week [13]