建信期货集运指数日报-20251218

Report Information - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The spot SCFIS index has slightly rebounded and stabilized this week. Shipping companies continue to raise prices, boosting market sentiment. However, MSC's online price for early January is lower than its announced increase, dampening bullish sentiment. The main shipping companies have formed a trend of joint price increases, which will support the pre - Spring Festival price increase expectation. It's difficult to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possible overvaluation of the off - season April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded and stabilized this week. Shipping companies are raising prices, but MSC's online price for early January is lower than the announced increase. The main shipping companies are jointly raising prices, supporting the pre - Spring Festival price increase expectation. It's hard to prove the overvaluation of EC2602 in the short term, and short - selling is not advisable. Attention should be paid to the possible overvaluation of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Shipping Market: From December 8 to 12, China's export container transport demand was generally stable. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 7.8% on December 12. European, Mediterranean, and North American routes saw price increases due to different factors. Many shipping companies, including MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag - Lloyd, announced price increases or surcharge adjustments [9][10]. - Geopolitical News: Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas. There are ongoing military operations in Israel, and there are developments regarding the relationship between armed groups in Rafah and Hamas. There are also updates on Maersk's plan to resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's pardon application [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: On December 15, the SCFIS for the European route was 1510.56, up 0.1% from December 8, while the SCFIS for the US West route was 924.36, down 3.8% [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures: Trading data for EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 on December 17 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6]. - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Various charts show data such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, and shipping prices [13][15][16][20]