纯碱、玻璃日报-20251218

Report Overview - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Daily Report on Soda Ash and Glass [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. High inventory pressure is difficult to resolve quickly. Although cost support is gradually emerging, the driving force is limited. Before the supply - demand structure changes significantly, the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about rebound opportunities [8]. - The glass market continues to be weak, lacking a driving force to turn strong in the short term. The contradiction between high inventory and weak demand remains the key factor suppressing the market. The glass price may decline further, and the rebound momentum of the contract is expected to be limited before substantial positive factors such as capacity clearance occur [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Daily Market: On December 17, the main soda ash futures contract SA605 fluctuated strongly. The closing price was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with an increase of 12,528 lots in positions [7]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash industry has gradually completed seasonal maintenance, and the supply is in a continuous recovery state. New production capacity in areas such as Alxa is being steadily released. However, the demand is weak, the inventory in the production and circulation links is relatively high, and the de - stocking process is slow. The downstream float glass market has weak supply and demand, and the real estate market shows no improvement. The soda ash price is below the industry cost, but the weak fundamentals still suppress the rebound potential [8]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to wait and see, be cautious about rebound opportunities, and pay attention to subsequent marginal changes in supply - demand and policy trends [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - Daily Market: The glass market continues to be weak, lacking a driving force to turn strong in the short term. Although the supply production rhythm is stable and the enterprise inventory has decreased slightly for several weeks, the overall inventory base is still high, the terminal demand is weak, and the price is under continuous upward pressure [9]. - Fundamentals: The terminal real estate market has not shown signs of stabilization, especially the completion data is weak, which directly restricts the actual consumption of float glass. The order days of downstream deep - processing enterprises have increased slightly month - on - month but are still at a low level year - on - year [9]. - Price Outlook: The current glass price is relatively low, but due to weak macro - expectations and downward inertia in downstream industries, the glass price may decline further. The rebound momentum of the glass 2605 contract is expected to be limited before substantial positive factors occur [10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, but specific data details are not further elaborated in the given content [14][16][19]