建信期货油脂日报-20251218

Report Information - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil and fat market declined significantly this week due to the drop in external crude oil, CBOT soybeans, and Malaysian palm oil. The US EPA's final decision on biofuel blending in 2026 is expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year. Regular rainfall in Brazil's agricultural areas is beneficial for soybean growth. With rising US inventories and expected high soybean yields in Brazil, soybean prices will face pressure. Malaysia's palm oil production slowed in December, but poor export prospects suggest an increase in inventory, which is negative for futures prices. Rapeseed oil is expected to have a lower valuation due to a record global rapeseed harvest and reduced Canadian exports affected by Chinese tariffs, and is commonly used as a short position in arbitrage. The recent sharp decline in the domestic market has led to low market confidence, with the market continuing to bottom out [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: In Dongguan, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 780, and the 12 - 2 package of third - grade rapeseed oil from Dongguan COFCO is 05 + 620. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil is y2605 + 510 from December to January, y2605 + 480 from January to March, and y2605 + 220 from July to September. Palm oil prices from Dongguan traders were stable with some increases. For example, 18 - degree palm oil from Guangzhou Yihai is 01 + 110, and from Dongguan COFCO is 01 + 80 [7]. - Market Analysis: The oil and fat market was affected by external factors and showed a significant decline. The market is expected to continue the bottom - building process [8]. 2. Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil: From December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 2.55% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.08%. Exports from December 1 - 15 were 613,172 tons, a 15.9% decrease from the same period in November. Exports to China were 85,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous month [9]. - Brazilian Soybeans: As of December 12, Brazil's soybean exports in December were significantly higher than last year. From December 1 - 12, exports were 1.65 million tons, and the average daily export volume was 165,022 tons, a 72.7% year - on - year increase. The average export price in December was $455.2 per ton, a 6.0% year - on - year increase [9][10]. 3. Data Overview - Brazilian Soybean Planting: As of December 12, 2025, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 94.1%, higher than the previous week's 90.3% and the five - year average of 90.6%, but lower than last year's 96.8% [16]. - Imported Soybean Inventory: As of December 16, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 8.1 million tons, compared with 7.6 million tons last year and a five - year average of 7.4 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month were 4.9 million tons. The expected arrivals in December 2025 were 9.5 million tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 17.81% increase from the same period last year [16].