碳酸锂期货日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures rose, with the intraday gain of the main contract approaching the daily limit. The market continued to trade on the disturbance in Yichun's mining end. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor announced the proposed cancellation of its Shiziling mining area, which pushed up the lithium price. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800, and the prices in the industrial chain showed a stable upward trend. With the short - term supply - side disturbance, the market's bullish sentiment was high, breaking through the previous high, and a new round of upward trend in lithium prices was expected [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the intraday gain of the main contract almost hit the daily limit. The market focused on the mining - end disturbance in Yichun. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of the Shiziling mining area led to the high - opening and high - walking of the lithium price during the day. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1200 to 97050, the price of spodumene rose by 70 to 1330, the price of lepidolite increased by 85 to 2785, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 300, and the price of lithium iron phosphate rose by 280 - 295. The upward trend in the industrial chain was stable, and the lithium price was expected to continue rising [11]. 3.2. Industry News - A joint report by global consulting firm Kearney and the World Economic Forum showed that the global lithium supply can only meet one - third (35%) of the predicted demand in 2035. The report warned that the pace of global electrification, digitalization, and emission reduction is faster than the supply speed of mineral resources. The lithium supply needs to more than double by 2035, and the production of rare - earth elements and copper must increase by over 50%. By 2035, electric vehicles will account for 86% of the total lithium demand, 55% of the cobalt demand, and one - third of the total rare - earth consumption. Even if all announced projects are implemented, existing mines and smelters can only meet 35 - 45% of the predicted demand for lithium and graphite. There is a significant time mismatch in the value chain due to the long development cycle (10 - 20 years) of new mining projects compared to the 1 - 3 - year scale - up time for battery and motor factories. To achieve electrification goals, 60 million kilometers of transmission lines need to be newly built or replaced by 2035, and the grid infrastructure will account for 22% of the global copper demand, 29% of the vanadium demand, and 7% of the lithium demand [12]. - J.P. Morgan's latest report predicted that the average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 will be $17,500 per ton, a 43% increase from the previous forecast, and $22,000 per ton in 2027, a 66% increase. It is estimated that the lithium production of Chilean lithium producer SQM in 2026 will reach 275,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with 250,000 tons from Chile and 25,000 tons from Australia. The demand for energy - storage system batteries in 2026 is expected to reach 900 gigawatt - hours, a 17% increase from the previous forecast, and energy - storage systems will account for 34% of the total lithium demand in 2026, rising to 42% by 2030 [12]. - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau recently issued a public notice on the proposed cancellation of 27 mining rights, which attracted wide attention in the domestic lithium - battery industry, and some involved enterprises raised objections. Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining area in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, is one of the 27 mining rights to be cancelled. On the evening of December 16, Jiangte Motor announced that it had submitted an objection application to the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau, proposed relevant solutions, and tried its best to renew the mining license for the Shiziling mining area. The company also stated that the notice is a proposed cancellation notice, and the final decision depends on the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau. The company obtained the mining license for the Shiziling mining area in 2014 and renewed it in 2019, with an annual production scale of 1.2 million tons and a mining area of 0.1114 square kilometers [13].