广发期货《农产品》日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: SPPOMA's production data decline supports the market. Malaysian BMD futures may rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Domestic Dalian palm oil may find support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate between 8200 - 8300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy may reduce industrial use. Brazilian soybean harvest may pressure CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term, but inventory may decrease during the Spring Festival, with limited basis fluctuation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: US crude oil price movements affect the domestic vegetable oil market. Watch if the 05 contract can stop falling between 8900 - 9000 yuan. Spot prices fluctuate slightly [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, with increased southern pickling demand. December - January prices are uncertain due to potential pandemic impact and secondary fattening. Spot market has some support from farmers' reluctance to sell. The futures market may adjust narrowly [3]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to a favorable supply outlook. Brazilian, Indian, and Thai sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic sugar futures are weak due to increased supply, and prices are likely to remain bearish [7]. 2.4 Meal Industry - US soybeans lack trading highlights, and South American new - crop soybeans have a high yield expectation. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the one - to - five spread is supported, but the upside is limited [9]. 2.5 Corn Industry - Short - term corn supply increase may pressure prices, but farmers' reluctance to sell and low - inventory enterprises' restocking needs limit the decline. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 2.6 Red Date Industry - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. Futures prices are weak, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved consumption during the peak season [17]. 2.7 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. US cotton exports showed a mixed trend. Domestic cotton has a long - term optimistic outlook but faces short - term downstream pressure. The price may face resistance around 14050 - 14100 yuan [21]. 2.8 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising gradually, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. Supply remains sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 8460 yuan, futures price (Y2605) to 8096 yuan, basis increased by 7.69% [1]. - Palm oil: Spot price in Guangdong dropped to 8380 yuan, futures price (P2605) to 8398 yuan, basis increased by 60.87% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 9570 yuan, futures price (O1605) to 9157 yuan, basis increased by 19.71% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [1]. - Spreads between different oils also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., 2605, 2603) increased slightly. Spot prices in various regions had different changes, with an overall upward trend in some areas [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - Slaughter volume increased by 2.48%, while some prices (e.g., daily strip price, piglet price) decreased slightly. Breeding profits improved [3]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Domestic futures prices of sugar showed a weakening trend, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. Import sugar prices also declined [7]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales data changed significantly, with a decrease in production and sales in some areas and an increase in imports [7]. 3.4 Meal Industry 3.4.1 Price and Basis Changes - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices had different trends, with basis changes. Imported soybean prices were stable, and the basis of some contracts increased [9]. 3.4.2 Market Factors - US soybean is under pressure from South American supply. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and market sentiment affects the spread [9]. 3.5 Corn Industry 3.5.1 Price and Inventory Changes - Corn futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and inventory in some warehouses and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Corn starch futures price increased slightly [10]. 3.5.2 Market Situation - Supply and demand factors, such as farmers' selling behavior and enterprises' procurement, affect the corn market, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 3.6 Red Date Industry 3.6.1 Price and Position Changes - Futures prices of red dates decreased slightly, and spot prices in Cangzhou had different trends. The position and the number of warehouse receipts increased [14]. 3.6.2 Market Situation - Sales area arrivals are high, but transactions are lower than expected. The market is weak in the short - term, with potential improvement during the consumption peak [17]. 3.7 Cotton Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Domestic cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly. ICE cotton futures rose [21]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - Commercial and industrial inventories, import volume, and other indicators changed, with downstream inventory accumulation and marginal profit deterioration [21]. 3.8 Egg Industry 3.8.1 Price and Basis Changes - Egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - related prices (e.g., egg - chick price, culled - hen price) had different trends [23]. 3.8.2 Market Situation - Egg supply is sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23].