苹果产业日报-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - As of December 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country decreased by 5.57 tons compared to last week. The出库 speed of late - Fuji apples in the producing areas is slow, and the prices in the Gansu producing area have been adjusted downwards due to quality decline. The sales of apples in the sales area are affected by citrus fruits, and there is a possibility of a short - term price decline [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9068 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 162,157 hands, with an increase of 19,889 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2831 hands, a decrease of 918 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) it is 2.6 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) it is 4.2 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 second - grade fruit farmer's goods) it is 4 yuan/jin, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, and that of Fuji apples is 9.13 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg. The total cold - storage inventory of apples in the country is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.53, with no change, and in Shaanxi it is 0.57, with no change. The monthly export volume of apples is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 5.8%, and the year - on - year export amount of apples decreased by 14.3%. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; that of bananas is 6.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.27 yuan/kg; that of watermelons is 5.64 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.17 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 14.6, a decrease of 2.6; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 17.8, a decrease of 1.8; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 23.8, a decrease of 3 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 23.66%, a decrease of 0.33%; that of at - the - money put options is 23.68%, a decrease of 0.31% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons compared to last week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 53.41%, a decrease of 0.32% compared to last week; in Shaanxi it is 57.42%, a decrease of 0.44% compared to last week. The出库 speed of late - Fuji apples in the producing areas is slow, and the prices in the Gansu producing area have been adjusted downwards due to quality decline, while the prices in other producing areas are relatively stable [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The出库 atmosphere in the Shandong producing area is still not strong, with sporadic transactions in the warehouse. The export of small fruits through the foreign trade channel in Penglai has slowed down slightly, and a small amount of 75 fruit has been exported. The sales in each Shaanxi producing area are relatively sluggish, the low - price goods are exported well, and the transaction of high - quality fruit from farmers has slowed down slightly. In the Luochuan producing area, most of the goods are packed by merchants from their own channels, and a small amount of goods are purchased from farmers' second - grade goods. The arrival volume in the sales area has decreased, and the sales are not fast compared to the same period last year due to high prices. Oranges and other citrus fruits have an impact on apple sales. Currently, the festival stocking is light, and there is a possibility of a short - term price decline [2]