玉米系产业日报-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For the US corn market, it has entered the export peak season with high phased supply pressure, and the global and US corn supply - demand remains relatively loose, suppressing international prices. However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US corn ending - inventory forecast supports the price [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the acquisition of reserve warehouses has increased since December, supporting the market bottom. But high prices limit purchasing enthusiasm, and with rumors of wheat and reserve corn regulation, the supply has increased and prices have fallen [3]. - In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, new - season corn supply is abundant, industry operating rates are rising, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Although the inventory of starch enterprises has increased, holiday备货 may boost demand, and the rise of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2190 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1001351 lots, an increase of 12746 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 87155 lots, an increase of 9707 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 53277 lots, a decrease of 1163 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2499 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 3 - 5 monthly spread is - 47 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 104235 lots, a decrease of 27863 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 30748 lots, an increase of 2763 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 2500 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 440.75 cents/bushel, an increase of 4.75 cents; the total open interest is 1616139 contracts, an increase of 13001 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 120900 contracts, an increase of 77887 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2349.61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17 yuan/ton; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 2121.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 50 dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2570 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 159.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.83 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 466 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The average wheat price is 2516.39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 239 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 425.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.58 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2]. - Sown areas: The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares (an increase of 0.55 million hectares), 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 31.5 tons, a decrease of 20.2 tons; at northern ports is 152 tons, a decrease of 11 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 294 tons, an increase of 18.6 tons; the starch enterprise inventory is 107.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 36 tons, an increase of 30 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19.17 tons, an increase of 6.39 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 tons, an increase of 20.9 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 141.67 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 68.22%, a decrease of 2.06%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% [2]. - Processing profits: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), 74 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 11.7%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.45% [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 1.48%, a decrease of 7.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 5.17%, a decrease of 3.41% [2]. Industry News - China's corn and corn flour imports in November were 56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 87.5%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 185 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.1% [2]