铂钯金期货日报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recent sharp increases in platinum and palladium prices are driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. Platinum may see continued price support in the medium - to - long term due to Fed easing expectations, a persistent supply - demand structural deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations from the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening as its market shifts from supply shortage to surplus, but dovish sentiment from rate - cut expectations may support prices, and its low price could make it a cost - effective option. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase short - term correction risks due to the upward repair demand of the basis. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 542.60 yuan/gram (up 27.40), and the main contract position is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00). Palladium's main contract closing price is 476.60 yuan/gram (up 31.15), and the main contract position is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00). [2] 现货 Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 511.65 yuan/gram (up 13.76), and the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 390.00 yuan/gram (down 3.00). The platinum main contract basis is - 13.64 yuan/gram (down), and the palladium main contract basis is - 86.60 yuan/gram (down 34.15). Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions decreased by 243.00 contracts weekly, and palladium's decreased by 342.00 contracts. [2] Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total platinum supply is expected to decrease by 0.80 tons, and the total demand is expected to increase by 25.60 tons. The total palladium supply is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 5.00 tons), and the total demand is expected to be 261.60 tons (down 27.00 tons). [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.22 (down 0.06), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92% (down 0.01%), and the VIX volatility index is 16.48 (down 0.02). US economic data shows mixed performance, with the unemployment rate rising, retail sales having different trends, and PMI values falling. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the economic outlook, expecting 3.5% GDP growth in 2025 and indicating that Trump will announce the Fed Chair candidate in early January. [2] Industry News - The palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the platinum main contract continued its upward momentum. Price increases are due to spot shortages and arbitrage trading. [2] Key Attention Points - Key US economic data to be released include the core CPI month - on - month on 12 - 18 at 21:30, the PCE price index month - on - month on 12 - 19 at 21:30, and the University of Michigan's 1 - year inflation rate expectation on 12 - 19 at 23:00. [2] Price Range - For London platinum spot, the upper resistance level is 2000 dollars/ounce, and the lower support level is 1800 dollars/ounce. For London palladium spot, the upper resistance level is 1750 dollars/ounce, and the lower support level is 1500 dollars/ounce. [2]