合成橡胶产业日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,650 - 11,400 in the short term. The supply pressure of the synthetic rubber industry remains high due to high levels of circulating resources and production device loads. On the demand side, tire companies are operating with weak capacity utilization, entering the seasonal off - season, with slow overall shipment rhythms and rising finished product inventories. Some companies have production suspension or limitation due to production and sales pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the main contract position was 101,376, a decrease of 4,040. The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,560 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different manufacturers (Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, etc.) increased by 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. Brent crude oil was 59.68 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.76 dollars; Naphtha CFR Japan was 532.88 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.75 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 870 dollars/ton, unchanged; WTI crude oil was 55.94 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.67 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 8,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 71.17%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 55.9%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber in November was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69%, a decrease of 2.84 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,450 tons, an increase of 220 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 71.57%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.07%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.58 days, an increase of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.51 days, an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points. In November, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points compared with the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points compared with the same period last year. As of December 17, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [2]