瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As of December 18, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 89.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. The Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continued to be shut down, and the weekly average MTO industry operation declined. The Lianhong Gerun MTO plant's production load was gradually increasing, and the short - term industry operation rate was expected to increase slightly. The MA2605 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 2130 - 2190 in the short term. The overall methanol supply was abundant. Due to the previous snowfall and downstream concentrated restocking during the week, the upstream loading and shipping pace slowed down, and the inventory of inland enterprises increased. The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol enterprises might still show a slight increase. The methanol port inventory decreased slightly this week. The提货 of the mainstream social warehouses in East China continued well, but a Zhejiang olefin plant's shutdown for maintenance continued to affect consumption. In South China, imports and domestic shipping vessels continued to replenish, the提货 volume of the main storage areas was okay, and the inventory increased slightly. The follow - up situation of foreign vessel unloading should be continuously monitored [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 42 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the main methanol contract was 867,499 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7,233 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 122,757 lots; the number of methanol warehouse receipts was 6,789, a week - on - week decrease of 920 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,095 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,937.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price difference was 150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 84 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main Chinese port was 249 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 318 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 69 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price was 4.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 79.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.1 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 41.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.54 tons; the methanol import profit was - 15.73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23.67 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 161.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.57 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 391,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate was 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate was 41.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operation rate was 8.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points; the acetic acid operation rate was 73.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.27 percentage points; the MTBE operation rate was 69.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the olefin operation rate was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit was - 1,043 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 14.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.42%, a week - on - week increase of 16.87 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 39.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.83 tons, or 10.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.04 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 tons, or 6.25%. As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 3.10 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 1.54 tons. The methanol port inventory decreased slightly this week. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the production capacity output from restarts, and the overall output increased. The operation of inland methanol projects was normal, and the overall supply was abundant [3]