瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing an accumulation trend, and the overall accumulation amplitude has increased compared to the previous period. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing, while mixed rubber arrivals have slightly decreased. Downstream tire factories are cautious in restocking, with a mostly wait - and - see purchasing sentiment, resulting in a small overall outbound volume. In terms of demand, tire enterprises are flexibly arranging production this week. Some enterprises are controlling production. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is operating weakly, entering the seasonal off - season. The enterprises' overall shipment rhythm is slow, the finished product inventory is rising, and under the production and sales pressure, some enterprises are implementing production suspension or limitation. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,320 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,455 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 5 yuan, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,865 yuan, up 45 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have changed, with the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai rubber increasing by 128 hands to 146,623 hands, and the open interest of the main contract of 20 - number rubber decreasing by 2,571 hands to 59,257 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have also decreased [2] Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the spot market have changed. For example, the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 have also changed. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber has also changed [2] Upstream Situation - The reference prices of various raw materials in Thailand have changed, with the price of RSS3 theoretical production profit increasing by 13.6 US dollars/ton to 138.6 US dollars/ton, and the STR20 theoretical production profit increasing by 10.6 US dollars/ton to 53.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased, with the all - steel tire operating rate at 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points, and the semi - steel tire operating rate at 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong have also increased. The monthly output of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires has also increased [2] Option Market - The historical volatility and implied volatility of the underlying asset have decreased. The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 12.76%, down 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 14.59%, down 0.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options is 19.07%, down 0.44 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]