甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251218

Group 1: Methanol Polyolefin Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas. The basis has strengthened slightly, unloading is slow, and ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons. It is difficult to reduce imports from December to January. The futures contract 01 offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports. It is believed that the end - point of 01 will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to short the 1 - 5 spread on rallies [1]. Summary of Related Data - Price Data: The daily changes of动力煤期货, Jiangsu spot, South China spot, etc. are 0, 10, 20, - 5, 10, - 10, - 5 respectively [1]. - Import and Inventory: In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons. It is difficult to reduce imports from December to January. Ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks, but it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later [1]. Group 2: Polyethylene (PE) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The external markets in Europe, America and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are oscillating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [4]. Summary of Related Data - Price and Profit: The import profit is around - 200. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and LD is weakening [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of upstream Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as coal - chemical enterprises, has decreased, while the social inventory remains the same. The raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream enterprises are neutral [4]. Group 3: Polypropylene (PP) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export has been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is oscillating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. Summary of Related Data - Price and Profit: The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, the import profit is around - 700, and the export profit has been good. The PDH profit is around - 400 [4]. - Inventory: The upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing [4]. Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of mid - and upstream enterprises are continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the continuity of exports in Q4. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer of caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [4]. Summary of Related Data - Price and Profit: The basis of high - end delivery products is - 20, and the export profit has decreased from 309 to 256 [4]. - Inventory: The inventories of mid - and upstream enterprises are continuously accumulating [4].