原油成品油早报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, oil prices have declined due to a rapid weakening of global supply and demand. On - land and on - water inventories have significantly increased, and the Dubai monthly spread has further weakened. Geopolitical incidents include the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers and ongoing Russia - Ukraine negotiations. There are rumors that Russia has found more ways to export crude oil. The CPC No. 3 berth is expected to resume on the 17th. Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads are declining, US refinery operations have recovered to over 94%, and domestic refinery operations are fluctuating. The fundamental surplus has intensified. If there are no new geopolitical changes, the surplus in the first quarter will be close to that during the pandemic. In the short term, short positions in monthly spreads and absolute prices are recommended. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From December 11 - 17, 2025, WTI crude oil price changed by $0.67, BRENT by $0.76, and DUBAI by $0.32. Other related indicators such as NYMEX RB, HO - BRT also had corresponding changes [3] - During the same period, SC - BRT changed by - 1.28, SC - WTI by - 1.19, domestic gasoline - BRT by - 73.00, and domestic diesel - BRT by - 82.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT changed by - 8.34, Singapore 380 - BRT by - 1.83, and other indicators also had different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Daily News - Venezuelan Defense Minister Lopez said on the 17th that US President Trump's remarks about blocking the Caribbean Sea were "delusions", and Venezuela stated that its oil exports were continuing [3] - The EU Parliament approved an agreement to gradually phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [3] 3.3 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 12 was - 932200 barrels, gasoline inventory was 483500 barrels, and refined oil inventory was 251100 barrels [3] - According to the EIA report, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1274000 barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3%. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 249000 barrels to 4122 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 1384300 barrels per day [4] - US crude oil exports increased by 655000 barrels per day to 4664000 barrels per day, and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6400 barrels per day to 6525000 barrels per day [16] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2052100 barrels per day, an increase of 0.82% compared to the same period last year [16]