《有色》日报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized, while futures prices rose and then fell. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may reach 10000 yuan/ton; if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts fall short of expectations, the price may drop to 7500 yuan/ton. [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise strongly, with a large premium over the spot average. The supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If production cuts are significant, the futures may remain strong; if not, the high premium may converge to the spot price. [2] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in some regions shows resilience. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market was affected by news, with the main contract rising. The fundamentals have not changed much, with both supply and demand being strong. The price may remain strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a pullback. [5] Nickel - The nickel market was affected by Indonesian nickel ore news and macro factors. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price may repair slightly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [7] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market was affected by low valuations and nickel price rebounds. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main operating range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [9] Zinc - The zinc market is affected by macro - level risk aversion. The supply is gradually changing from loose to tight, and the demand has a structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. [13] Copper - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - side concerns. The price bottom has shifted up, and short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by macro events. [14] Aluminum - The alumina market has a pattern of high supply and high inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices and Basis: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on December 17 compared to December 16. The basis of various types decreased. [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of most contracts changed significantly, with some showing large decreases or increases. [1] - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. The production and operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while those in Xinjiang increased slightly. [1] - Inventory Changes: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly, while the change in warehouse receipt inventory was zero. [1] Polysilicon - Spot Prices and Basis: The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased significantly. [2] - Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads: The main contract price rose, and the inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [2] - Fundamental Data: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. [2] - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. [2] Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1.65%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 12.00%. [4] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [4] - Fundamental Data: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. [4] - Inventory Changes: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and LME inventory increased. [4] Lithium Carbonate - Prices and Basis: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate and related raw materials increased to varying degrees. [5] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [5] - Fundamental Data: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, and the inventory decreased. [5] Nickel - Prices and Basis: The prices of various types of nickel increased slightly, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel continued to rise. [7] - Cost of Electrolytic Nickel: The cost of some methods of producing electrolytic nickel changed. [7] - New Energy Material Prices: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly. [7] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] - Supply, Demand and Inventory: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, while domestic inventories increased. [7] Stainless Steel - Prices and Basis: The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. [9] - Raw Material Prices: The price of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased slightly. [9] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [9] - Fundamental Data: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports decreased significantly. [9] Zinc - Prices and Spreads: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.69%, and the import loss increased. [13] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [13] - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed. [13] - Inventory Changes: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased. [13] Copper - Prices and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49%, and the premium decreased. [14] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [14] - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and the operating rates of some copper - related industries decreased. [14] - Inventory Changes: Domestic social inventory increased, while the bonded area inventory decreased. [14] Aluminum Alumina - Prices and Spreads: The prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. [17] - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and the operating rate increased slightly. [17] - Inventory Changes: Alumina plant inventory, port inventory, and electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased. [17] Electrolytic Aluminum - Prices and Spreads: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55%. [17] - Fundamental Data: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. [17] - Inventory Changes: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Prices and Spreads: The prices of various types of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly. [18] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [18] - Fundamental Data: In November, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rates of related industries increased. [18] - Inventory Changes: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly. [18]