LPG早报-20251219

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East has a tight supply of LPG, and prices are unlikely to drop significantly in winter. The domestic LPG futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent operation of PDH under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse warrants [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4398 (+0), in Shandong was 4380 (-30), and in South China was 4500 (+10). The price of etherified C4 was 4610 (+10). The lowest delivery location was Shandong [4] - The PG futures price dropped due to factors such as falling oil prices, news of PDH shutdown, and an increase in warrants. The basis was 265 (+122), the 01 - 02 month spread was 84 (+5), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -223 (-12). The number of warrants was 5476 lots (+865) [4] - The price of domestic civil LPG decreased. The cheapest deliverable product was civil LPG in East China at 4419 [4] Market Conditions - The overseas paper market first rose and then fell. The FEI and CP month spreads strengthened, while the MB month spread weakened. The oil - gas ratio declined. The domestic - overseas spread weakened, with PG - CP at 71 (-28) and PG - FEI at 65 (-14). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [4] - The arrival of LPG increased by 12.25%, and port inventories increased by 3.22%. External sales increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. Although the profit of chemical demand was poor, the operating rate was firm, with the PDH operating rate at 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4] Profit and Cost - The spot and futures profits of PDH weakened. The performance of alkylation units deteriorated, and the MTBE profit fluctuated [4] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 85 (-7), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively. Freight rates increased slightly [4]