集运早报-20251219

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is no obvious trending market recently, and the market fluctuates widely around the news of MSK's cabin opening and sailing suspension [1] - After January 2026, the focus is on the spot market trend. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of freight rates in January. Historically, freight rate highs often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but the container capacity in January may suppress the increase [1] - At the current level, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - In the short term, the downside space for the 04 contract is limited. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rallies that the 04 contract may bring following the spot market or recovering the basis [2] - For the far - month contracts, use the positive spread trading strategy. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rallies for the 10 contract [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - Contract Prices and Changes: The EC2512 contract closed at 1624.4 with a decline of 0.47% and a change of - 113.8, and the trading volume was 122. Other contracts such as EC2602, EC2604 also showed different price changes and trading volumes [1] - Month - to - Month Spreads: For example, the EC2512 - 2504 spread was 515.6, with a day - on - day increase of 7.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 58.8 [1] Spot Market Information - Spot Rate Indexes: The SCFIS (European Line) index on December 15, 2025, was 1510.56 points, with a weekly increase of 0.10%. The SCFI (European Line) on December 12, 2025, was 1538 dollars/TEU, with a change of 9.86% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.55, with an increase of 1.59%, and the NCFI was 1064.13, with an increase of 9.98% [1] - Shipping Company Quotes: In Week 51, MSK opened cabins at 2400 (a month - on - month increase of 200), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 dollars. In Week 52, MSK opened cabins at 2300 (a month - on - month decrease of 100). In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 dollars respectively [3] News and Other Information - Geopolitical News: On December 19, mediators for the Gaza cease - fire will meet in the US to discuss the second phase of the cease - fire [4]