芳烃橡胶早报-20251219

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: Near - term TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory is depleted, and basis strengthens slightly while spot processing fee weakens. In the long - run, PX pattern is good, and with raw material support, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [2]. - MEG: After the EG valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, the inventory accumulation rate narrows. However, considering new production capacity, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but new capacity is put into production rapidly, and downstream is expected to enter the off - season. The current processing fee is not low, and pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [8]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: National explicit inventory is stable, and Thai cup - rubber price is stable. The current strategy is to wait and see [8]. - Styrene: No overall view is given in the report, but price data changes are presented. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Spread Changes: From 2025/12/12 to 2025/12/18, PTA spot price increased by 45, and polyester profit decreased by 98. Naphtha cracking spread, PX processing spread, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end TA device runs stably with stable start - up rate. Polyester load drops slightly, inventory is depleted, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic start - up is stable, and overseas load rebounds [2]. MEG - Price and Profit Changes: From 2025/12/12 to 2025/12/18, MEG far - month price increased by 2.00, and coal - based MEG profit and cash flow had no significant change [8]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end domestic oil - based production reduces load, overseas partial devices reduce load, port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, and basis weakens. Coal - based efficiency continues to weaken [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Profit Changes: From 2025/12/12 to 2025/12/18, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 10, and short - fiber profit decreased by 10 [8]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end Hengyi High - tech overhauls, start - up rate drops to 95.5%. Production and sales are basically maintained, and inventory is stable. Demand side: Dacron yarn start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory increases, and finished product inventory accumulates [8]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price Changes: From 2025/12/12 to 2025/12/18, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 20, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 130 on a weekly basis [8]. - Market Situation: National explicit inventory is stable, and the absolute level is not high. Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The current strategy is to wait and see [8]. Styrene - Price Changes: From 2025/12/12 to 2025/12/18, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 5, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 45. EPS (East China general material) price decreased by 100 [8].