永安期货有色早报-20251219

Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The copper market is expected to maintain a long - position approach with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December, considering the structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and loose overseas liquidity [1] - The aluminum market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2] - The zinc market's price may not fall deeply due to potential supply reduction at the end of the year. Short - term unilateral trading is advised to be on the sidelines, while attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - The nickel market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored due to ongoing policy support in Indonesia [8] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered because of potential policy support in Indonesia [11] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] - The tin market shows signs of weakening in the short term, but it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [18] - The industrial silicon market is expected to have balanced supply and demand in December, with prices fluctuating with costs. In the long term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices reached a new high this week and then declined on Friday night. The 2026 supply - demand gap remains, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - In China, consumption has slowed down due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are still suppressed [1] - Overseas liquidity remains loose, and the copper price should be bought on dips, with a December price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market was affected by interest - rate cut expectations, and terminal demand was lower than expected, causing two significant price corrections this week [2] - In the short term, the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and products is still good, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 [2] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined from $163 to $90.6 [5] - Supply - side TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining rapidly, and domestic mine supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Multiple smelters will conduct maintenance in December, with an expected output decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [5] - Demand is seasonally weak domestically, while in overseas markets, European demand is average and US zinc imports have increased recently. The domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in short supply [5] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly this week, demand was weak, and inventories continued to build up both at home and abroad [8] - There are ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices. Short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - The supply of stainless steel remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [11] - The Indonesian policy side has a motivation to support prices, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered [11] Group 7: Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of concentrates is tight. The supply of recycled lead has increased, and demand is expected to weaken [14][15] - The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the battery factory's high - level operation is not enough to build up inventory. The lead price has returned to the 17,000 - yuan range [15] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] Group 8: Tin - Tin prices rose rapidly this week due to macro - sentiment and capital allocation [18] - The supply - side processing fee for tin ore remains low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices are stimulating inventory exports [18] - Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened. Inventories have increased both at home and abroad [18] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be balanced in December, and prices will fluctuate with costs [21] - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly this week. The supply of raw materials is tight, and upstream inventories are being reduced [23] - Downstream demand was active at the beginning of the week but weakened after the price rebound. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [23] - The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23]