《黑色》日报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports [1][3][4] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations. The current decline in steel apparent demand restrains the upward price drive, but steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction provide bottom - end support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is gradually weakening, with the iron ore valuation under pressure. The strategy is to go long on the Iron Ore 2605 contract when the price is low and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industries - Both the coke and coking coal futures markets have shown over - decline. The short - term strategy is to bet on a rebound and go long on the Coke 2605 and Coking Coal 2605 contracts when the price is low [4] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Steel prices generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3280 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar increased from 3084 yuan/ton to 3125 yuan/ton. The basis of steel weakened [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production increased, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar rising by 5 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils decreased, with the profit in East China dropping from - 24 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output slightly increased by 0.1%, while the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.0%. The rebar output increased by 1.6%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, the rebar inventory decreased by 5.6%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.6% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.7%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder rising from 834.8 yuan/ton to 842.5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis of most iron ore types decreased [3] Supply - The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 6.6% week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 9.8%. However, the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.3% [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.4%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 4.9% and 3.0% respectively [3] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.3%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.7%, and the available inventory days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industries Coke - Coke futures showed a strong rebound during the day and oscillated at night. The second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 12, and there is still an expectation of further cuts in the short term. The supply side has a delayed adjustment in coke prices compared to coking coal, and the demand side is affected by steel mill losses and reduced pig iron output [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal futures had a strong rebound during the day and oscillated at night. The spot auction prices of coking coal became mixed, and the supply side faced issues such as poor coal mine shipments and a slight decrease in daily output. The demand side was affected by steel mill losses and reduced pig iron output [4]