大越期货纯碱早报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, the soda ash is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from the previous value of 1170 yuan/ton to the present value of 1193 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.97%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1135 yuan/ton to 1145 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.88%. The main basis changed from - 35 yuan/ton to - 48 yuan/ton, a rise of 37.14% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 147.60 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 129 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - 开工率、产能产量: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.35%. The weekly output of soda ash is 73.54 tons, including 39.78 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21] - Industry Capacity Changes: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22] 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - 产销率: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 106.02% [25] - 下游需求: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in national factories is 149.93 tons, an increase of 0.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34] 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]