《能源化工》日报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - Monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - Inventory Changes: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - Futures and Spot Prices: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - Spreads: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - 开工率 and Inventory: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - 开工率: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - Inventory: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - 开工率: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices and Spreads: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - Inventory: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - 开工率: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream and Downstream Prices: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - Spreads: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - 开工率 and Inventory: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - Futures and Spot Prices: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - Spreads and Positions: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC and Caustic Soda Prices: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass and Soda Ash Prices: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - Supply and Inventory: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - Real Estate Data: Some real - estate data changed [20].