《农产品》日报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Apple: The overall performance of apple-producing areas is sluggish, with the off - season of consumption and high prices suppressing demand. Only the high - quality goods in Gansu have a decent sales speed. It is recommended to close long positions opportunistically [6]. - Jujube: The arrival of goods in the jujube sales area is high, but the trading volume is mediocre. The futures price is weak, and the basis is strengthening. If the trading volume picks up during the peak consumption season, it may boost the futures price. Future attention should be paid to the inventory level after the Spring Festival, the planting area in 2026, and early - stage weather forecasts [8]. - Fats and Oils: For palm oil, the weak export of Malaysian palm oil restricts its rebound. For soybean oil, although the domestic supply is sufficient, the inventory is expected to decrease due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. For rapeseed oil, the futures price is affected by the movement of crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to whether the rapeseed oil 05 contract can stop falling in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan [10]. - Sugar: ICE raw sugar futures hit a more than one - month low due to a strong US dollar and a loose supply outlook. The drought in Brazil has improved, which is beneficial for the next sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain weak due to increased supply [13]. - Cotton: ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to short - covering. US cotton exports are in a volatile situation. The domestic cotton market has an optimistic long - term outlook but faces short - term constraints from the weak downstream industry. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100 [15]. - Eggs: The egg price is gradually rising from a low level. The supply of eggs is still sufficient, and the market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern [17]. - Meal and Beans: US soybeans are under downward pressure due to weak demand and a strong harvest expectation in South America. The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose situation, and the long - short spread has limited upward space [19]. - Corn: The corn spot market is dull. The market sentiment is loose due to policy auctions and the expectation of increased grain sales. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [22]. - Pigs: The spot price of pigs is stable, and the southern curing demand provides support. The futures price is under pressure from short - selling. The market may continue to bottom out, and attention should be paid to the development of the epidemic and the potential entry of second - fattening pigs [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract of apple 2605 is at 9068 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. The arrival volume at several fruit markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 752.98 million tons, down 0.73% [1]. - Regional Cold - Storage Inventory: Shandong accounts for 33% with 248.36 million tons, Shaanxi 28% with 212.45 million tons, and Gansu 16% with 117.27 million tons [5]. Jujube - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract of jujube 2605 is at 8915 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The prices of Cangzhou's spot jujubes have declined to varying degrees, and the basis is strengthening [8]. Fats and Oils - Palm Oil: The export of Malaysian palm oil in December is weak. China's palm oil imports in November reached a yearly high, suppressing the increase of domestic palm oil futures [10]. - Soybean Oil: US soybean exports to China are slower than expected, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be bountiful. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the inventory is expected to decrease [10]. - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil futures price is affected by the movement of crude oil prices. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis has a narrow range of fluctuations [10]. Sugar - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract of sugar 2605 is at 5102 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. ICE raw sugar is at 14.47 cents/pound, down 1.96%. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have declined [12]. - Industry Data: The national sugar production and sales have decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has also declined [12]. Cotton - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract of cotton 2605 is at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The spot prices are relatively stable, and the basis has declined [15]. - Industry Data: The commercial inventory has increased by 28.7% month - on - month, and the import volume has increased by 33.3% [15]. Eggs - Futures and Spot Prices: The egg 01 contract is at 3067 yuan/500KG, down 0.81%. The egg - producing area price is at 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.24% [17]. - Industry Data: The egg - chicken苗 price has decreased by 1.75%, and the breeding profit is - 22.62 yuan/feather, down 4.64% [17]. Meal and Beans - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is stable at 3100 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract is at 2747 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is at 2400 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, and the RM2605 contract is at 2340 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [19]. - Import and Processing Profits: The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's soybean meal import and processing profit is up 4.6%, and the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's rapeseed meal import and processing profit is up 6.72% [19]. Corn - Futures and Spot Prices: The corn 2603 contract is at 2190 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The corn starch 2603 contract is at 2493 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [22]. - Market Situation: The supply and demand of the corn market are relatively balanced in the short term, but the market sentiment is affected by policy auctions and the expected increase in grain sales [22]. Pigs - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract of pigs 2605 is at 11880 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The spot prices in various regions have increased to varying degrees [26]. - Industry Data: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses is 239692, up 3.34%, and the number of fertile sows is 39900000, down 1.12% [26].