大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and rose. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved, and trading volume increased. The 1 - month negotiation increased, and the spot basis was relatively strong. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 11. - The PTA plant has been operating stably recently. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving up the spot basis. The futures price fluctuates following the cost. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream loads. [5] MEG - The MEG is operating at a low price. Some domestic ethylene - based plants have reduced their loads. The ethylene glycol operating rate dropped to below 70% last week. With the restart and load increase of Zhengda Kai this week, the operating rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign ships of ethylene glycol this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. - In the short - to - medium - term, due to the supply - side contraction, ethylene glycol shows a loose balance, but under the long - term inventory accumulation expectation, the market lacks confidence and obvious driving forces. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be adjusted at a low level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes. [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: - Fundamentals: Futures fluctuated and rose, spot negotiation was active, and the basis was strong. The 12 - month goods were mainly traded at a discount of 10 - 12 to 01, with a price range of 4610 - 4685. The next - week warehouse receipts were traded at a discount of 10 - 15 to 01, and the January main - port goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 65 to 05 or 2 - 0 to 01. - Basis: The spot price is 4655, and the 05 - contract basis is - 93, with the futures price higher than the spot price (neutral). - Inventory: The PTA plant inventory is 3.76 days, a decrease of 0.1 days compared to the previous period (positive). - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average (positive). - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing (negative). [5][6] - MEG: - Fundamentals: Similar to PTA, the futures fluctuated and rose, the spot negotiation improved, and the basis was strong. - Basis: The spot price is 3654, and the 05 - contract basis is - 113, with the futures price higher than the spot price (neutral). - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 84.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons compared to the previous period (negative). - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average (negative). - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions increasing (negative). [7][8] 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It records the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, load, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data. For example, in December 2025, the PTA production is expected to be 684, the total demand is 666, and the ending inventory is 314. [12] - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, total demand, port inventory, and other data. For example, in December 2025, the total supply of ethylene glycol is 252, the total demand is 247, and the supply - demand difference is 5. [13] - Price Data: - Spot Price: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have fluctuated. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from $575.5/ton on December 17, 2025, to $584.5/ton on December 18, 2025. - Futures Price: The prices of PTA and MEG futures contracts have also changed. For example, the TA01 contract price increased from 4626 yuan/ton to 4690 yuan/ton. - Basis: The basis of PTA and MEG futures contracts has changed. For example, the TA05 basis decreased from - 80 yuan/ton to - 93 yuan/ton. - Profit: The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester products have changed. For example, the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 129.30 yuan/ton. [14] - Inventory Data: It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers over the years, showing the inventory trends of these products. [41][42][44][46] - Operating Rate Data: It shows the operating rate data of the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry chain over the years, including the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises. [53][57] - Profit Data: It presents the profit data of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester fiber production over the years, showing the profit trends of these products. [60][62]