大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are currently facing an oversupply situation with weakening downstream demand, and both are expected to show a volatile trend today [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase in December and a suspension of the increase plan from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is relatively stable, while the demand for packaging films has weakened after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6440 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -36, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.6%, indicating a bearish outlook [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000), which is bearish [4] - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract shows a weak market, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase in December and a suspension of the increase plan from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have been continuously declining due to the strong propane price. The demand for plastic weaving has entered the off - season and declined, while the demand for pipes is acceptable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6200 (-50), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -79, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.3%, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000), which is bearish [6] - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing but still bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract shows a weak market, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to fluctuate today [6] - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro policies [7] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 6440 (-20), the price of the 05 contract is 6476 (-3). The basis is -36 (-17). The warehouse receipt is 11,332 (0), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000) [8] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 6200 (-50), the price of the 05 contract is 6279 (+25). The basis is -79 (-75). The warehouse receipt is 10,534 (-196), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been growing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing over the years [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend [15]