工业硅期货早报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8550 - 8740 for the 2605 contract. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The factors include cost - rising support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans as positives, and slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon as negatives [5][12][13]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule continues to decrease, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 58290 - 60310 for the 2605 contract [8][10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 88,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 4.17% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level (293,000 tons), silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable; organic silicon inventory is at a low level (43,900 tons), with a production profit of 1359 yuan/ton, a comprehensive开工率 of 74.68% (unchanged from the previous week and higher than the historical average); aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level (73,100 tons), with an import loss of 204 yuan/ton [5]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 2874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On December 18th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 555 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 561,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 192,300 tons, a 2.83% increase; main port inventory is 136,000 tons, a 3.82% increase [5]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [5]. - Main force position: The main force holds a net short position, and short positions are decreasing [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 25,100 tons, a 2.71% decrease from the previous week. The predicted production schedule for December is 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 12.15 GW, a 1.67% increase from the previous week, and inventory was 233,000 tons, a 9.38% increase. Silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for silicon wafers is 45.7 GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month; the production of battery cells in November was 55.61 GW, a 6.17% decrease, and the inventory of battery cell external sales factories last week was 9.44 GW, a 4.07% increase. Battery cell production is in a loss state, and the production schedule for December is 48.72 GW, a 12.38% decrease; the production of components in November was 46.9 GW, a 2.49% decrease, and the expected production in December is 39.99 GW, a 14.73% decrease. Domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% decrease, and European monthly inventory is 33.1 GW, a 6.49% decrease. Component production is currently profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On December 18th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6900 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 293,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20 [10]. - Main force position: The main force holds a net short position, and short positions are increasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase, with the 06 contract having the highest increase rate of 2.24% [16]. - The basis of most contracts decreased, with the 06 contract having the largest decrease rate of - 25.85% [16]. - Registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8815 [16]. - Organic silicon: Weekly DMC production decreased by 0.01 tons (- 0.20%), the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.68%, and monthly DMC inventory decreased by 12,400 tons (- 22.02%) [16]. - Aluminum alloy: Monthly original aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 1.15 tons (- 8.66%), and monthly recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 3.7 tons (5.74%) [16]. - Spot prices of different grades of silicon remained unchanged, and inventory in different regions and ports showed different degrees of increase [16]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, with the 01 contract having the largest decrease rate of - 4.51% [18]. - The basis of different contracts decreased, with the 01 contract having the largest decrease rate of - 28.73% [18]. - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.7 GW (5.74%), and weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.5 GW (- 22.06%) [18]. - The production of battery cells in November decreased by 3.66 GW (- 6.18%), and the inventory of battery cell external sales factories increased by 0.37 GW (4.08%) [18]. - Component monthly production decreased by 1.2 GW (- 2.49%), and component monthly exports decreased by 9,987,368 (- 20.25%) [18]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, polysilicon disk price trends, industrial silicon inventory, production and capacity utilization rate trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance sheets (weekly and monthly) are presented through data and charts, showing the historical and current situations of various indicators [20][23][26][30][36][38][41]. - For the downstream industries of industrial silicon, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, their price trends, production and sales situations, inventory, and supply - demand balance are also analyzed in detail, covering multiple aspects such as raw materials, products, and market conditions [44][53][61].