碳酸锂期货早报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,998 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, production was 95,350 tons, and next month's forecast is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. November imports were 25,500 tons, and next month's forecast is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - Demand - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,658 tons, a 0.02% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,524 tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][9]. - Cost - The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 102,460 - 106,420 [9]. - Market Outlook - Under the tight supply - demand balance, the market is affected by sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The main risk points are production cuts/overhaul plans and the start time of industry clearance [14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply and Demand Analysis - Last week's lithium carbonate production increased slightly, and next month's production and imports are expected to increase. The inventory of downstream sample enterprises decreased. The cost of imported lithium concentrate increased, and the demand - led situation weakened. Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in a certain range [8][9]. - Expectations - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Fundamental Factors - The fundamentals are neutral, the basis shows spot discounting futures (bearish), the overall inventory is higher than the historical average (neutral), the disk shows a bullish trend, and the net short position of the main contract decreased (bearish) [11]. - Influencing Factors - Bullish factors include production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and a month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - Price Changes - The prices of most lithium compounds and related products showed certain fluctuations, with some rising and some falling [16]. - Supply - Side Data - The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and开工率 of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and other products showed different degrees of change. For example, the weekly开工率 of lithium carbonate was 83.52%, a 10.86% increase [20]. - Demand - Side Data - The monthly production, inventory, and battery loading volume of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium - ion batteries also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase [20]. 3.2.2 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore - The price, production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. For example, the import volume of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 15.00% [20][28]. - Lithium Carbonate - The开工率, production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) changed over time. For example, the weekly开工率 of lithium carbonate production from lithium spodumene was 83.52% [20][34]. - Lithium Hydroxide - The capacity utilization rate, production, import and export volume, and开工率 of lithium hydroxide also changed. For example, the domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide was between 40% - 80% [20][43]. 3.2.3 Cost and Profit - Lithium Compounds - The production cost, profit, and processing cost of various lithium compounds (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc.) from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 104,486 yuan/ton, a 0.38% increase [20][48]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate - The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream enterprises, and other sources showed different trends. For example, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 110,425 tons, a 0.94% decrease [20][55]. - Lithium Hydroxide - The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelter sources also changed [55]. 3.2.5 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Batteries - The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power lithium - ion batteries was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase [20][59]. - Ternary Precursors - The price, cost, profit, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary precursors for 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) averaged 100,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton [64]. - Ternary Materials - The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary materials for 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) averaged 100,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton [70]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate - The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 100,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton [74]. - New Energy Vehicles - The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production of new energy vehicles was 1,772,000 units, a 9.59% increase [20][82].