豆粕早报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Bean Meal: The short - term outlook for domestic bean meal is to oscillate weakly under the influence of US soybeans. Although China's continued purchases of US soybeans support the short - term US soybean market, uncertainties in purchase volume and favorable South American soybean planting weather suppress the US soybean market. Additionally, the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans in China also affects domestic bean meal. The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780 [9]. - Soybeans: The short - term US soybean market is affected by China's soybean purchases and South American planting weather. Domestic soybeans are influenced by the US soybean trend and domestic factors such as state - owned soybean rotation storage. The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content found. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high. With normal planting and growth weather in South America, bean meal is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the increase in bean meal demand in December supports price expectations. The interaction between the US soybean trend and the increase in bean meal demand has led to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, combined with the potential for weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, means that bean meal will likely oscillate in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary China - US trade agreement is a short - term positive for US soybeans; the current bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [15]. - Bearish Factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Bean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3020, with a basis of 273, indicating a premium over the futures. The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week and a 44.18% increase from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 21, indicating a premium over the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week and a 47.57% increase from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - For bean meal, the short positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - For soybeans, the short positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed in [10].