菜粕早报-20251219

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory supporting the market, and uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, it will maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2300 and 2360. The market is neutral due to factors such as soybean meal influence, anti - dumping ruling uncertainty, off - season demand, and low inventory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but China - Canada trade issues may reduce short - term exports and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and a 75.8% import deposit was imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and no pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season, and there is a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case. The main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Base difference: The spot price is 2510, with a basis of 170, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from last week's 1.8 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 tons last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position has changed from short to long, with capital inflows, which is bullish [9]. 3.6 Other Data - Trading data: From December 10th to 18th, the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [13]. - Price summary: From December 10th to 18th, rapeseed meal futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2605) and spot prices in Fujian fluctuated, and the spot premium slightly expanded [15]. - Warehouse receipt statistics: From December 9th to 18th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Aquatic product prices: Aquatic fish prices slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. - Import and inventory: Rapeseed imports increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remained at zero [23][25][27].