建信期货原油日报-20251219

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily - Date: December 19, 2025 - Industry: Energy and Chemicals Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After the adjustment in the December report, the supply surplus in the fourth quarter of this year has deepened, and the market inventory accumulation speed has accelerated. The inventory accumulation speed will slightly slow down in the first quarter of 2026. Indian state - owned refineries have increased their purchases of Russian oil, and the discount of Russian oil has narrowed. As the US has not taken more actions against Venezuela for the time being, the geopolitical premium has declined, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $56.49, closing at $55.07, with a high of $56.54, a low of $54.89, a decline of 2.82%, and a trading volume of 26.98 million lots. Brent's opening price was $60.12, closing at $58.89, with a high of $60.13, a low of $58.53, a decline of 2.84%, and a trading volume of 34.14 million lots. SC's opening price was 427 yuan/barrel, closing at 426.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 428.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 419.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.27%, and a trading volume of 9.47 million lots [6]. - News Impact: Last night, a US journalist reported that Trump might announce cooperation with Venezuela, causing oil prices to surge and basically recover the decline on Tuesday night. However, Trump did not mention Venezuela in his national speech today, and the oil price increase was reversed after the speech. The US has seized Venezuelan oil tankers and continued to pressure Venezuela, with a total of 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil seized. The US plans to seize more Venezuelan oil tankers, which will affect Venezuelan exports to some extent but have limited impact on the total supply unless further measures are taken to restrict Venezuelan exports [6]. 3.2 Industry News - US media reported that if Putin refuses the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, the US will impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet", and the White House responded that there is no new decision for the time being. - Under the influence of tanker restrictions, Venezuela's oil storage space is about to run out. - According to Politico, the Trump administration is asking the US oil industry whether they are willing to return to Venezuela once Maduro steps down [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][13][21][23].