建信期货棉花日报-20251219

Report Overview - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure and adjusting. The overall trend remains strong in the short - term despite the pressure - level game. The overseas market shows limited adjustments in the US cotton situation, while the domestic cotton market has limited fundamental changes [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Domestic Spot Market: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The transaction price of machine - picked cotton in northern and southern Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around 14,750 yuan on a legal weight basis. The same - quality low - basis transaction basis is at CF01 + 800 - 900, and many basis quotes are still at 900 and above [7]. - Cotton Yarn Market: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with few new orders. Only high - count yarns are selling well. The prices of pure - cotton yarns are temporarily stable, but some large factories are offering significant discounts to clear inventory. Xinjiang textile enterprises are barely making a profit, while inland textile enterprises continue to lose money [7]. - Cotton Fabric Market: The trading in the pure - cotton fabric market has slightly improved in some areas but remains dull overall. Factories report that order varieties are being re - ordered quickly, but the increase in shipments is limited [7]. - Overseas Market: According to the US Department of Agriculture's December global cotton supply - demand report, both production and consumption are slightly down, and the global ending inventory is slightly increasing. US cotton production is slightly up, and inventory is mainly accumulating. US cotton is in a weak oscillation, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets is continuously widening [8]. - Domestic Market: As of December 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume is 5.5878 million tons, an increase of 68,200 tons from the previous day. The commercial inventory is in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons at the end of November. The demand - side startup has slightly decreased, the profit and cash - flow of textile enterprises have deteriorated marginally, and the finished - product inventory pressure is still not large [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Import Data: In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons (64.0%). In November 2025, China imported 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (20.3%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40,000 tons (3.0%) [9]. - CFTC Position Data: As of the week ending December 2, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures funds were 77,532 (+949) contracts, increasing for the third consecutive week; the short positions were 116,479 (-1758) contracts, changing from an increase to a decrease. The total ICE positions were 283,123 (+3874) contracts, changing from a decrease to an increase. The net long ratio was - 13.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9 percentage points [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to cotton, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][20][28][30].