建信期货铜期货日报-20251219

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The copper market is facing a structural shortage from 2026 due to the growth of electrification demand outpacing new supply, and geopolitical intervention is a major factor. The copper price has been oscillating at a high level and is at a crossroads for a directional move, so short-term cautious observation is advised [6][10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Shanghai copper continued to oscillate. Overnight, Fed Governor Waller advocated for continued rate - cuts based on the job market, weakening the US dollar index and briefly boosting the copper price. However, the decline in US stocks dampened market sentiment, and the copper price remained in high - level oscillation. The spot price rose 95 to 92240, the spot discount narrowed by 10, the import loss remained over a thousand yuan, the refined - scrap copper price difference was over 4000, and domestic social inventories increased by 0.13 to 16.58 million tons. The market is waiting for the Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting on Friday. Given the week - long high - level oscillation, the copper price is at a point of directional choice, and short - term cautious observation is recommended [10] 2. Industry News - BloombergNEF pointed out that starting from 2026, the copper market will face a structural supply shortage as electrification demand growth outpaces new supply. Geopolitical intervention is the biggest single factor affecting the metal market. By 2045, energy - transition - related copper demand will triple. If investment and recycling do not increase significantly, the market will face a continuous shortage. BloombergNEF estimates that without new mines or a significant increase in scrap - copper recycling, the copper shortage could reach 19 million tons by 2050 [10] - The Bank of Nova Scotia plans to restart its metal trading department that was dissolved during the peak of the pandemic. It has hired a recruitment agency to build a team for the new department, which will engage in trading, lending, and hedging of precious and base metals, with an initial focus on precious metals. This move comes as the prices of gold, copper, and silver have hit record highs, and market interest in metal trading has resurfaced [10][11]