碳酸锂期货日报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. After the sentiment of supply - side disturbances faded, the high point of the previous day had obvious suppression. Although the weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate slowed down, which was expected to dampen short - term market enthusiasm, the callback space of lithium prices was limited due to the stable price increase trend in the industrial chain [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The high point of the previous day had strong suppression after supply - side disturbances subsided. The price of electric carbon increased by 500 to 97550, the price of Australian ore increased by 10 to 1340, the price of mica increased by 40 to 2825, the price of ternary increased by 200 - 800, the price of iron - lithium increased by 120, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1044 tons to 110425 tons, and the de - stocking intensity continued to slow down [10]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported that although the global lithium carbonate price had risen significantly due to increased supply uncertainty and improved future demand prospects, it was still lower than last year's average. On December 10, the price reached $10,500 per ton, a 13% increase from the end of October. The average price this year was $9306 per ton, 24% lower than the 2024 level. Despite expected oversupply in the market this year and next, prices continued to rise. Lithium prices were expected to recover moderately in 2026, but the resumption of major mines might cause short - term price drops. The consumption of lithium - battery energy storage systems was expected to increase, driving prices up [13]. - BloombergNEF's "2025 Transition Metals Outlook" report stated that lithium supply continued to grow. Supported by new project launches in South America and Africa, the maturity of direct extraction technology, and increased secondary supply, the total lithium carbonate equivalent production capacity might increase from 1.5 million tons in 2025 to 4.4 million tons in 2035. Lithium prices were still low after falling from the peak of $80,000 per ton in 2022, but recent production interruptions and subsidy cuts had led to a slight rebound [13].