玉米类市场周报：政策性拍卖发酵，玉米期价继续回落-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures continued to decline this week. The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2,192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is in the peak export season with high short - term supply pressure, but the reduction of the US corn ending stocks forecast by USDA supports the price. In China, the purchase of reserve depots in the Northeast has increased, but high prices limit the purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises. The rumor of wheat and reserve corn regulation and release has led to the release of grain sources, causing the price to decline. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the rising temperature stimulates the willingness of grain holders to sell. Feed enterprises have low willingness to replenish stocks, and deep - processing enterprises have limited ability to accept high - priced corn. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2,492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from last week. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, the supply of raw material corn is abundant, and the industry operating rate has continued to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. As of December 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.074 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. However, the stocking before New Year's Day and the Spring Festival may boost the downstream demand, and some downstream customers have repurchased corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Corn - Market Review: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,192 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - Market Outlook: US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but the reduction of ending stocks forecast by USDA supports the price. In China, Northeast reserve depots' increased purchase supports the market bottom, but high prices limit demand. Rumors and rising temperature in North China and Huanghuai regions lead to increased supply and price decline. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - Market Review: The main 2603 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,492 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - Market Outlook: Abundant raw material supply and rising operating rate increase supply - side pressure, with inventory rising. However, pre - holiday stocking and tapioca starch price increase may boost demand. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures continued to decline, with a total position of 1,004,517 lots, an increase of 67,310 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also continued to decline, with a total position of 141,225 lots, an increase of 32,215 lots from last week [15]. 3.2.2. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 82,982, compared with - 111,571 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 28,994, compared with - 37,848 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [21]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 52,650 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 2,500 lots [27]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,349.61 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 157 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 208 yuan/ton [32][36]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 36 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 47 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contract of starch and corn was 300 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,516.39 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,349.61 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 166.78 yuan/ton. In the 51st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 712 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton compared with last week [55]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - Supply Side - As of December 12, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 191,000 tons, an increase of 125,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 262,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.792 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 684,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 124,000 tons [45]. - As of December 18, the total sales progress of corn in the main producing areas was 42%, an increase of 2 percentage points from last week and 4 percentage points from the same period last year [58]. - In November 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons or 86.67% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous month [62]. - As of December 18, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.98 days, an increase of 0.45 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.63% [66]. - Demand Side - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads or 2.3% year - on - year, and an increase of 12.33 million heads or 2.9% quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads or 1.12% month - on - month [70]. - As of December 12, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 163.34 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 240.69 yuan/head [73]. - As of December 18, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 67 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 379 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 708 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 202 yuan/ton [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Supply Side - As of December 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.24 million tons, an increase of 10.20% [81]. - From December 11 to 17, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 631,700 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 328,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week. As of December 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.074 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.32% [85]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of December 19, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.84% from 10.56% last week. The implied volatility decreased this week and was at a relatively low level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [88].