铝类市场周报：供给稳定需求韧性，铝类或将震荡运行-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the raw material supply is relatively sufficient, with domestic production capacity and operation rate potentially dropping slightly. The demand remains stable. The alumina market may be in a stage of oversupply, and the main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [4]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the raw material price is falling while the spot price is strong, leading to expanding profits for aluminum plants. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the demand has some resilience at the end of the year but may face the impact of the off - season. The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, and the main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the raw material supply is tight, restricting production. The demand is weak due to the off - season. The market has high inventory with slight destocking, and the main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [8]. - In the options market, considering the future aluminum price will oscillate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Summary - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum first declined then rose, with a weekly change of +0.07%, closing at 22,185 yuan/ton. Alumina first rose then fell, with a weekly change of +1.21%, closing at 2,500 yuan/ton. The main contract of cast aluminum first declined then rose, with a weekly change of +0.57%, closing at 21,235 yuan/ton [4][7]. - Market Outlook: Alumina may face a situation of oversupply and stable demand; electrolytic aluminum is likely to be in a state of tight supply - demand balance; cast aluminum alloy may experience a slight decline in supply and a slowdown in demand [4][5][8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Price: As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from December 12, a rise of 0.2%. The closing price of LME aluminum on December 18 was 2,916 dollars/ton, up 21 dollars/ton from December 12, a rise of 0.73%. The alumina futures price was 2,524 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan/ton from December 12, a rise of 3.19%. The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 21,235 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from December 12, a rise of 0.57% [11][15]. - Position and Spread: As of December 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 653,552 lots, down 22,193 lots from December 12, a decline of 3.28%. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, up 8,825 lots from December 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 880 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan/ton from December 12. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 70,995 yuan/ton, down 915 yuan/ton from December 12 [18][21]. - Spot Price: As of December 19, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased by 30 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.08%. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from December 12, a decline of 0.23%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 21,840 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from December 12, a decline of 1.04%. The spot discount was 160 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week. The LME aluminum near - month and 3 - month spread on December 18 was - 44.27 dollars/ton, down 17.59 dollars/ton from December 11 [28][31][30]. 3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of December 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, up 850 tons from December 11, a rise of 0.16%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory on December 19 was 120,510 tons, up 515 tons from last week, a rise of 0.43%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory on December 18 was 510,000 tons, down 21,000 tons from December 11, a decline of 3.95% [34]. - Raw Materials: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.31%. From January to October, the cumulative import of bauxite was 170.9596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.05%. As of the latest data, the inventory of nine bauxite ports in China was 261.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong decreased by 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [37][43]. - Production and Trade: In November 2025, the alumina output was 8.138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. From January to November, the cumulative alumina output was 84.657 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. In October 2025, the alumina import was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2927.91%; the export was 180,000 tons. In November 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.792 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 41.165 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 248,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.24%; from January to October, the cumulative import was 2.2047 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.88%. In November 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.931 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. From January to November, the cumulative aluminum product output was 61.511 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In November 2025, the aluminum product import was 240,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%; the export was 570,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. In November 2025, the regenerated aluminum alloy production capacity was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.96%, and the output was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.12%. In November 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.739 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%. From January to November, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 17.456 million tons. In October 2025, the aluminum alloy import was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.77%; the export was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.65%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum alloy import was 841,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.24%; the export was 228,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.81% [46][53][57][60][63]. - Downstream Markets: In November 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 91.9, down 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2024, the new housing start - up area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. From January to November 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year. In November 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the output was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the future oscillatory movement of aluminum prices and the possible convergence of volatility, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71].