Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market showed a downward trend this week. The continuous losses of the breeding industry have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens, resulting in a slight decrease in the egg - laying hen inventory and a slight improvement in the market atmosphere. The low spot prices and continued losses in the breeding industry are favorable for long - term prices. However, the current high inventory of laying hens, the slight slowdown in the elimination of old hens, and the pessimistic market atmosphere still restrict the performance of near - term prices. The futures price continued to decline this week. The far - month contracts are caught between weak current realities and strong expectations, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2946 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 78 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: The continuous losses of the breeding industry have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens, resulting in a slight decrease in the egg - laying hen inventory. The low spot prices and continued losses in the breeding industry are favorable for long - term prices. However, the current high inventory of laying hens, the slight slowdown in the elimination of old hens, and the pessimistic market atmosphere still restrict the performance of near - term prices. The far - month contracts are caught between weak current realities and strong expectations, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Top 20 Positions: The egg futures March contract fluctuated and closed down, with a position of 174,582 lots, an increase of 17,921 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 52,210, compared to - 38,490 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [12]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was reported at 3120 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 8 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at 174 yuan per ton [22]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 550 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is generally at a low level for the same period [26]. - Related Commodities Spot Prices: As of December 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.51 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.9 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm: As of October 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 114.24, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%. The national new - chick index was reported at 67.09, a month - on - month decrease of 12.47% [38]. - Elimination Index and Culling Age: As of October 31, 2025, the national elimination index of laying hens was reported at 114.44, a month - on - month decrease of 8.18%. The national average culling age of hens was reported at 510 days [44]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2349.61 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3080 yuan per ton [48]. - Feed Prices and Breeding Profits: As of December 12, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was reported at - 0.36 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [54]. - Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens: As of December 12, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 7.94 yuan per kilogram [61]. - Monthly Egg Exports: According to data released by the Chinese Customs, in October 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,394.53 tons, an increase of 923.78 tons compared to the same period last year (12,470.75 tons), a year - on - year increase of 7.41%, and a month - on - month increase of 178.74 tons compared to the previous month (13,215.79 tons) [65]. 3.4 Representative Company - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is mainly presented in the form of a P/E ratio chart, but no specific analysis of the company is provided in the text [67].
鸡蛋市场周报：老鸡淘汰略有放缓，鸡蛋近月继续走低-20251219
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-19 09:09