螺纹钢市场周报：炉料反弹+宏观利好，螺纹期价止跌走高-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - many ministries and commissions have listed 2026 task lists, and more incremental policies will be introduced; in the industry, it is the consumption off - season, and the demand for rebar is difficult to rise continuously, but the low output, low inventory, and steel - making cost support are short - term positives for rebar futures prices. The RB2605 contract may be range - bound. Also, considering the furnace materials rising and macro - level support for steel price rebound while construction steel demand is suppressed in the off - season, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options when the steel price rally weakens [7][55] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of December 19, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3320 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton). Rebar production increased to 181.68 tons (+2.9 tons) year - on - year (- 37.05 tons). Apparent demand rebounded to 208.64 tons (+5.55 tons) year - on - year (- 30.04 tons). Total rebar inventory decreased to 452.54 tons (- 26.96 tons) year - on - year (+49.52 tons). The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week and 12.55 percentage points lower than last year [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the Fed's Williams said monetary policy is ready for 2026, expecting the US unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025. The labor market risk has increased, while the inflation risk has eased, and the Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral. Domestically, multiple departments have deployed to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and listed key tasks for 2026, with more incremental policies to be introduced [7] - Cost aspect: Iron ore spot prices are firm, and steel mills' raw material inventories are generally at medium - low levels. There is a certain expectation for buying near the year - end winter storage, but iron ore ports are in a state of inventory accumulation with relatively loose supply. Coking coal was weak before due to increased operating rates and inventory, but recent "anti - involution" news and the release of relevant policies support the futures to rebound with reduced positions. In an environment of decreasing hot metal production, the support for furnace material demand weakens, and the sustainability of the futures price rebound may be hindered [7] - Technical aspect: The RB2605 contract stopped falling and rebounded. The daily K - line broke through the MA5 moving average (3100 mark) upwards and may test the pressure around the MA60 moving average (3130 - 3160) in the short term. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels and the green bar shrank [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The RB2605 contract fluctuated upwards this week and was slightly stronger than the RB2610 contract. On the 19th, the price difference was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [13] - Warehouse receipts and positions: On December 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipt volume was 82284 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16987 tons. The net long position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 11322 lots, an increase of 26072 lots from the previous week [20] - Spot price and basis: On December 19, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mmHRB400 (theoretical weight) was 3320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3306 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price. On the 19th, the basis was 201 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Upstream Market - Raw material prices: On December 19, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 845 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [30] - Iron ore arrivals and inventory: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2928.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 358.9 tons; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2723.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 242.9 tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1358.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 79.8 tons. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 16225.53 tons, a month - on - month increase of 114.06 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 328.23 tons, a decrease of 5.94 tons [35] - Coking plant situation: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 70.50%, a decrease of 1.42%; the daily average coke output was 49.34 tons, a decrease of 0.99 tons; the coke inventory was 51.90 tons, an increase of 1.79 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 881.37 tons, a decrease of 1.96 tons; the available coking coal days were 13.4 days, an increase of 0.23 days [39] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - Crude steel production: In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 6987 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel production was 89167 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [43] - Rebar production: On December 19, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.20 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.86 tons. On December 18, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 181.68 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week and a decrease of 37.05 tons from the same period last year [45] - Electric furnace steel: On December 18, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building material production enterprises was 39.83%, an increase of 0.64% from last week and a decrease of 8.12% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66 percentage points. The operating rates in North China, East China, and Southwest China increased slightly, while the rest remained flat [48] - Rebar inventory: On December 18, the in - plant inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 139.54 tons, a decrease of 1.26 tons from last week and an increase of 19.26 tons from the same period last year. The inventory of construction steel in 35 major cities was 313 tons, a decrease of 25.7 tons from last week and an increase of 30.26 tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 452.54 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.96 tons and a year - on - year increase of 49.52 tons [51] 3.4.2 Demand Side - In January - November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 78591 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 656066 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; the new housing construction area was 53457 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 39454 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 16.8%, water transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway transportation investment increased by 2.7% [54] 3.5 Options Market - Furnace materials rising and macro - level support lead to a steel price rebound, but the demand for construction steel is suppressed in the off - season. It is advisable to buy out - of - the - money put options when the steel price rally weakens [55]