合成橡胶市场周报-20251219

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the raw material increased after the rigid demand buying, the cost - side support strengthened beyond expectations, and the compression of production profit drove the spot market price up. The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 10,250 to 11,000 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and the main sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton in total, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina Southwest increased by 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - Most of the previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have gradually restarted, and the domestic production has increased. This week, the operation gradually resumed, but the flow of goods was average, the inventory of production enterprises increased, and the monthly plan on the spot side was gradually implemented, but the market transaction follow - up was average, and the inventory of trading enterprises also increased. With a large amount of circulating resources on the spot side and a high load of domestic production plants, the supply pressure remained high. In terms of demand, tire enterprises arranged production flexibly this week, some enterprises controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises was weak, entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, the finished product inventory increased, and under the production and sales pressure, some enterprises had shutdown and production - limit phenomena [6]. - The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,650 - 11,400 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of raw materials increased after rigid demand buying, the cost - side support strengthened, and the spot market price rose. The price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong continued to rise, and the ex - factory prices of major sales companies increased [6]. - Market Outlook: The supply pressure is high due to the restart of plants and increased inventory, while the demand is weak as tire enterprises face seasonal off - season and production and sales pressure [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,650 and 11,400 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.8% [10]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided other than the topic of "Position Analysis of the top 20 in cis - butadiene rubber" [11]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of December 19, the spread between contracts 2 and 3 of butadiene rubber was - 25 [16]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of December 19, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [19]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot Price: As of December 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [24]. - Basis: As of December 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - Prices of Naphtha and Ethylene: As of December 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 534.88 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.87 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory of Butadiene: As of December 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.55%, a decrease of 0.62% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 36,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [32]. 3.3.2 Industry - Production and Capacity Utilization of Cis - butadiene Rubber: In November 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.26%, an increase of 5.57% from last week [35]. - Production Profit of Cis - butadiene Rubber: As of December 18, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - Inventory of Cis - butadiene Rubber: As of December 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 34,010 tons, an increase of 2,060 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 27,600 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,410 tons, an increase of 960 tons from last week [42]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points. Enterprises arranged production flexibly, and some controlled production, with the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises being weak [45]. - Tire Exports: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [48]