Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined with a weekly drop of about 2.42%. The Brazilian sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the second half of November 2025 decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian crushing is coming to an end with a seasonal reduction in supply. In the domestic market, the number of sugar mills in operation is increasing, and the industrial inventory of domestic sugar is in a seasonal growth trend. However, the sugar import volume in November decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Overall, with sufficient supply and weak spot prices, the futures market is dragged down, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation in the later period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Performance: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract dropped by about 2.42% this week [5]. - Supply Situation: In Brazil, in the second half of November 2025, 15.993 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a 21.08% year - on - year decrease, and 724,000 tons of sugar were produced, a 32.94% year - on - year decrease. In the domestic market, as of now, 68 sugar mills in Guangxi have started operation in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 6 less than the same period last year; 31 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operation, 2 more than the same period last year. In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a 41.3% month - on - month decrease and an 18.2% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Market Outlook: With sufficient supply and weak spot prices, the futures market is expected to remain weak. Future factors to watch include the domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [5][6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: The price of the US Sugar March contract declined by about 4.17% this week. As of November 25, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of US raw sugar futures was 194,604 lots, an increase of 6,204 lots from the previous week [12]. - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.58 cents per pound, an increase of 0.07 cents per pound from last week [16]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract dropped by about 2.42% this week. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 86,656 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 3,611 [18][25]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 7 yuan per ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 292 yuan per ton [29]. - Spot Market: As of December 19, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,380 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,310 yuan per ton [35]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,308 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 76 yuan per ton, a decrease of 52 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,145 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 48 yuan per ton, a decrease of 16 yuan per ton from last week [41] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - Side - Production Increase: As of the end of October 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% [45]. - Supply - Side - Industrial Inventory: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [48]. - Supply - Side - Imported Sugar Quantity: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [52]. - Demand - Side - Sugar Sales Rate: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - making season had all completed the crushing process. The total sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% [58]. - Demand - Side - Monthly Output of Refined Sugar and Soft Drinks: In November 2025, China's monthly refined sugar output was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. China's monthly soft drink output was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [62] 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - Option Market: The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week but does not provide specific data [63] - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry but does not provide specific data [67]
白糖市场周报-20251219
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-19 09:16