东亚期货软商品日报-20251219

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated December 19, 2025 [1] 2. Core Views - Sugar: International market sees a stronger dollar and improved supply, with ICE raw sugar hitting a one - month low. In the domestic market, increased Brazilian exports, lower - than - expected Indian export quotas and low export possibilities, along with a decrease in the number of sugar mills in Guangxi starting production, have led to a continuous decline in sugar prices. Attention should be paid to the support at the 5000 integer level [3] - Cotton: The current domestic downstream shows resilience. With the expectation of tight annual domestic supply and demand, the overall trend of Zhengzhou cotton is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be room for an increase, but there is still some short - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream orders and the digestion of the hedging pressure of high - cost new cotton [14] - Apple: The overall trading of late Fuji inventory is slow, with most transactions on an as - needed basis. The restocking of merchants has temporarily ended. In Gansu, merchants are mainly engaged in packaging and shipping, while there are not many order - based merchants. In Shaanxi, the shipping atmosphere is not strong, with only a small amount of second - grade fruit from farmers being shipped. In Shandong, the export is mainly small fruits through foreign trade channels [18] - Jujube: The new jujube harvest is basically completed. Due to the reduction in production, it is expected that there may be limited downward space for jujube prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday procurement situation in the downstream [26] 3. Data Summaries Sugar - Futures Prices and Spreads: On December 19, 2025, SR01 closed at 5177 with a daily decline of 0.29% and a weekly decline of 2.69%. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline. For spreads, SR01 - 05 was 90, SR05 - 09 was - 18, etc. [4] - Basis: On December 18, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 78 with a daily decline of 27 and a weekly increase of 66. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 28 with a daily decline of 2 and a weekly increase of 46. Other basis data also showed different changes [9] - Import Prices: On December 19, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3995, with a daily decline of 87 and a weekly decline of 115. The out - of - quota price was 5058, with a daily decline of 114 and a weekly decline of 150. Similar price changes were observed for Thai sugar imports [12] Cotton - Futures Prices: On the reporting day, Cotton 01 closed at 14045, up 75 or 0.54%. Cotton 05 closed at 14015, up 55 or 0.39%. Cotton 09 closed at 14175, up 45 or 0.32%. For棉纱, Yarn 01 closed at 19930, up 25 or 0.13%, while Yarn 05 closed at 20080, down 25 or - 0.12%, and Yarn 09 closed at 0, down 100% [15] - Spreads: The cotton basis was 1130, down 49. The spread of Cotton 01 - 05 was 30, up 20. Other spreads also had corresponding changes [15] Apple - Futures and Spot Prices: On December 19, 2025, AP01 closed at 9585, up 1.08% daily but down 1.60% weekly. Spot prices of different apple varieties in different regions remained mostly stable, with some showing small fluctuations. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4.1, with no change [19] - Spreads and Other Data: AP01 - 05 was 415, up 0.97% daily and 169.48% weekly. The main contract basis was - 125, up 267.65% daily but down 75.63% weekly [19] Jujube The report did not provide specific price data but mentioned the expected price trend and provided historical charts of futures spreads, including Jujube Futures Spread (01 - 05), Jujube Futures Spread (05 - 09), and Jujube Futures Spread (09 - 01) [26][27][29]