建信期货农产品周度报告-20251219

1. Report Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural products industry, dated December 19, 2025 [1] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers include Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, and Youran Liu, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3][4] 3. Fats and Oils 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the three major fats and oils fell significantly, with rapeseed oil having the largest decline. The 2025/26 global rapeseed supply - demand situation is characterized by record - high production, shrinking trade, and rising inventories. USDA raised the 2025/26 global rapeseed production by 3 million tons to 95.27 million tons, an 11% increase from the previous year. Due to China's policies, Canadian rapeseed exports have plummeted, and domestic rapeseed oil has a strong basis in the long - term but a bearish fundamental outlook [8]. - Palm oil production in the producing areas has been good this year. In the first quarter of 2026, production will slow down, and it faces de - stocking pressure. High - frequency data shows a 15.9% - 16.4% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first half of December. Higher - than - expected palm oil inventories will suppress prices [9]. - Soybean oil futures are also falling, mainly depending on the cost of imported soybeans. With rising US inventories and expected high yields in Brazil, CBOT soybean prices will be under pressure. The current high volume of imported soybeans in China restricts the upside space of soybean oil [9]. - The fats and oils market is expected to continue to bottom out. Wait for the bottom pattern to appear before deploying long positions, and be cautious about the rebound amplitude [10]. 3.2 Core Points 3.2.1 Domestic Spot Changes - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Grade 1 soybean oil in East China was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 60 yuan; Grade 3 rapeseed oil in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 100 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan weekly, and the basis remained unchanged [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Inventories of the Three Major Fats and Oils - As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.3113 million tons, a weekly decrease of 118,100 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.45% year - on - year increase. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3432 million tons, down 58,400 tons weekly; edible palm oil inventory was 584,200 tons, down 38,000 tons weekly; rapeseed oil inventory was 383,900 tons, down 21,700 tons weekly [19]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply of Fats, Oils, and Oilseeds - As of the end of the 50th week, the soybean crushing rate of major domestic soybean oil mills increased slightly from last week, with an average crushing rate of 58.32%. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 2.155 million tons. As of the end of December, the cumulative soybean crushing volume was 3.995 million tons [21]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.3852 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 9.484 million tons [22][23]. - As of the end of the 50th week, the crushing rate of imported rapeseed in major domestic oil mills was almost at a standstill. As of the end of December, the cumulative rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at domestic ports is about 60,000 tons [28]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Dynamics - From December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. In November, China's palm oil imports reached 330,000 tons, the highest this year. In January, Malaysia's crude palm oil export tax is set at 9.5%. In December, Indonesia's crude palm oil reference price is expected to be $926.14 per ton, and the export tax is reduced to $74 per ton [30][31]. 3.2.5 CFTC Positions - In the first week of December, speculative funds increased their net long positions in Chicago soybeans and reduced their net short positions in Chicago soybean oil [47] 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - In the spot market, corn prices decreased slightly this week. In the futures market, as of December 18, the Dalian main contract 2603 closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.06% decline [49]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis 4.2.1 Corn Supply - This week, the pace of grain sales slowed down. As of now, the grain sales progress is 40%, generally faster than the same period last year. As of December 12, the inventory at northern ports was 1.81 million tons, and at southern ports was 453,000 tons [51][52]. 4.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - This week, wheat prices adjusted weakly. The cost is supported in the short term, but the demand is weak. As of December 18, the national average corn price was 2,304 yuan/ton, and the wheat average price was 2,514 yuan/ton [54]. 4.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - In November, China imported 10.93 million tons of grain, a 15.3% year - on - year increase. The import of corn, sorghum, and wheat rebounded. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may increase [55][65]. 4.2.4 Feed Demand - In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of December 18, the average inventory days of national sample feed enterprises was 29.98 days [66][72]. 4.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - This week, the operating rate of the corn starch industry fluctuated little. As of December 18, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.24 million tons, a 10.20% increase from last week [74][75]. 4.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 forecast for Chinese corn remains the same as last month. The planting area is expected to be 44,873 thousand hectares, with a total output of 300 million tons. The consumption is expected to be 299.02 million tons, and the import volume remains at 6 million tons [81] 4.3 Outlook - In the spot market, prices may fluctuate. In the futures market, the 2601/03 contracts are under supply pressure, and prices may fluctuate. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [83][84][85] 5. Live Pigs 5.1 Market Review - In the spot market, live pig prices fluctuated upward this week, with an average price of 11.53 yuan/kg, a 2.31% week - on - week increase. In the futures market, as of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,325 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase from last Thursday [87][88] 5.2 Fundamental Overview 5.2.1 Long - term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory - As of November, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms increased slightly month - on - month. Overall, live pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [98][99] 5.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - This week, the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. As of November, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises decreased slightly month - on - month [108][109] 5.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pigs Inventory, Hogging, and Reraising - As of November, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in November. In December, live pig slaughter is expected to increase month - on - month, and decrease in January next year [112][113] 5.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Slaughter Weight - In November, the actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads. This week, the average slaughter weight was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg week - on - week [118][119] 5.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Imports - In October, China imported 60,000 tons of pork. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 920,000 tons, a 6.1% year - on - year decrease [124] 5.2.6 Reraising Demand - In early December, the enthusiasm for reraising was average. The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs increased slightly this week, and the reraising cost also increased [127] 5.2.7 Slaughter Demand - This week, the slaughter enterprise operating rate was 39.87%, up 1.33 percentage points from last week. From January to October 2025, the total slaughter volume was 322.88 million heads, a 22.21% year - on - year increase [130] 5.3 Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are oscillating strongly. In the futures market, it is recommended that investors wait and see, and breeding enterprises reduce hedging short positions as they slaughter [131][133] 6. Soybean Meal 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - In the spot market, as of December 19, the coastal soybean meal price was between 3,060 - 3,140 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the outer - market CBOT soybean price may test the support at 1050 cents. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the outer - market in the short term, and it is not advisable for long - position investors to bottom - fish [135][136][137] 6.2 Core Points 6.2.1 Soybean Planting - According to the USDA December report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, and the yield per unit is 53.0 bushels. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's is expected to be 48.5 million tons. As of December 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 94.1%, and as of December 11, Argentina's was 58% [138][139] 6.2.2 US Soybean Exports - As of the week of November 27, the US 2025/2026 soybean export shipment volume was about 804,000 tons, and the net sales volume was 1.106 million tons. The cumulative sales volume was 21.829 million tons, a 39.4% year - on - year decrease [145] 6.2.3 Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing - As of December 18, the gross profit of importing and crushing US Gulf soybeans in January was - 465 yuan/ton. As of the week of December 12, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 57.18%. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans. It is expected that the port soybean inventory will gradually decrease [154][155][157] 6.2.4 Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory - As of December 12, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 999,900 tons, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease and a 76% year - on - year increase [161] 6.2.5 Basis and Inter - month Spread - As of December 19, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract was about 94.14, and the 1 - 5 spread was 308. The 1 - 5 spread or the 3 - 5 spread may be stable and slightly stronger in the future [166] 6.2.6 Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of December 18, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 23,830 lots, at a historically high level for the same period [170] 7. Eggs 7.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the egg spot price stabilized at a low level and then rose slightly. In the futures market, the near - month contracts oscillated at a low level, and the far - month contracts declined. It is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to adjust fully before entering the market [172] 7.2 Data Summary 7.2.1 Inventory and Replenishment - As of the end of November 2025, the national in - production laying hens inventory was about 1.352 billion. In November, the sample enterprises' egg - chicken chick output was about 39.55 million, a 13.5% decrease from the same period last year [173] 7.2.2 Cost, Revenue, and Breeding Profit - As of December 18, the average price of large - sized pink - shell eggs was 2.98 yuan/jin, and the brown - shell eggs were 3.04 yuan/jin. The feed cost was 3.22 yuan/kg, the chick price was 2.68 yuan/chick, and the breeding profit was about - 0.17 yuan/jin [178][179] 7.2.3 Culled Hens - Recently, the culling volume has decreased, the culling age has accelerated, and the culled hen price is at a low level for the same period [181] 7.2.4 Demand, Inventory, and Live Pig Price - As of December 18, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, and the inventory in the circulation and production links was relatively high. The live pig price was 5.85 yuan/jin [189] 8. Sugar 8.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the raw sugar index fell back to test the 14 - cent mark, and the Zhengzhou sugar index continued to decline. It is expected that the 5000 - yuan mark may be the short - term bottom [196][197] 8.2 Data Overview - In the 2025/26 sugar - pressing season as of December 1, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region was 39.904 million tons, a 1.13% year - on - year increase. The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil's central - southern region is 16.43 cents/pound, higher than the ICE raw sugar price. The import processing profit of raw sugar declined this week [204][205][209]