建信期货黑色金属周报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market may experience a certain degree of restorative rebound. The implementation of export license management for some steel products is expected to have limited impact on steel exports next year. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the support from the raw material side reappears. [7][8][37] - The contradiction of oversupply in the coal market has been significantly improved by expected factors. The coal - coke futures prices may turn stronger, and investors should adjust their operation ideas. [11][58] - The iron ore market is under pressure. Supply is expected to increase while demand remains weak. Although the iron ore price has rebounded due to the sentiment in the black sector, it may weaken again after the rebound. [13][91] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendations | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Strategy Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy (RB2605, HC2605) | RB2605, HC2605 | 3119, 3269 | Oscillate Strongly | Policy on export license management for steel products, low production of five major steel products, low social inventory, low consumption, and support from the raw material side. [6] | | Single - side Strategy (J2605, JM2605) | J2605, JM2605 | 1740, 1108 | Oscillate Strongly | Indonesia's coal export tariff, potential suspension of coal imports, low coke production, and concerns about supply and cost. [6] | | Cross - period Arbitrage (I2605) | I2605 | 780 | Weaken after Rebound | Increase in Australian and Brazilian shipments, decline in steel production and iron - water output, and increase in port inventory. [6] | | Cross - variety Arbitrage (RB01 - 05, J01 - 05, JM01 - 05, I01 - 05, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM) | - | - | - | - | [6] | 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: The prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market rebounded in the week of December 19. [14] - Blast Furnace and Crude Steel: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, while the average daily output of crude steel of key large and medium - sized enterprises increased slightly. [14] - Iron - water and Electric Furnace: The national average daily iron - water output decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. [18] - Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products: The weekly output of rebar increased slightly, while the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in steel mills decreased. [18] - Social Inventory: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities and hot - rolled coil in 33 cities decreased. [22] - Downstream Demand: From January to November, the real estate development investment decreased, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased, but the growth rates of some products narrowed. [24] - Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit: The apparent consumption of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled coil decreased. The disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed a continuous widening of losses. [28] - Spot Tonnage Steel Gross Profit: The loss of long - process steel mills' rebar spot tonnage steel gross profit narrowed, and the short - process steel mills' rebar spot tonnage steel gross profit (flat electricity) decreased after turning profitable. [33] 3.2.2 Conclusions and Suggestions - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The steel market may experience a restorative rebound. The impact of export license management is expected to be limited, and the support from raw materials reappears. [37][38][39] - Basis: The rebar basis is expected to oscillate and narrow, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate within a range. [39][41] 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: The main coke spot prices were stable, and some coking coal prices fluctuated. [43] - Output and Capacity Utilization: The daily output and capacity utilization of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke decreased. [43] - Inventory and Profit: The port coke inventory decreased, the steel enterprise coke inventory decreased slightly, the independent coking plant coke inventory increased, and the profit of independent coking enterprises decreased. [46] - Mine Output,开工率 and Inventory: The daily output and开工率 of 523 sample mines increased, and the inventory of refined coal and raw coal increased. [47] - Coking Coal Import and Inventory: The import of coking coal from January to October decreased, and the inventory of coking coal in ports, independent coking plants, and steel enterprises changed differently. [52] - Raw Coal and Coke Output: From January to November, the output of raw coal and coke increased, but the growth rates narrowed. [52] 3.3.2 Conclusions and Suggestions The contradiction of oversupply in the coal market has been improved by expected factors. The coal - coke futures prices may turn stronger, and investors should adjust their operation ideas. [56][57][58] 3.4 Iron Ore 3.4.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased, and the spreads between some ore varieties changed. [59] - Inventory and Unloading Volume: The inventory of 45 ports increased, the daily average unloading volume decreased, the inventory of steel mills decreased, and the available days increased due to reduced consumption. [64] - Shipping and Arrival: The Australian and Brazilian shipments and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. It is expected that the shipments will remain at a high level at the end of the year. [69] - Domestic Ore Output and开工率: From January to November, the domestic iron ore output decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mines decreased. Some mines will have maintenance in December. [72] - Port Transaction Volume and Iron - water Cost: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume decreased, and the average iron - water cost of 64 sample steel mills increased slightly. [74] - Average Daily Iron - water Output, Blast Furnace开工率 and Capacity Utilization: The average daily iron - water output, blast furnace capacity utilization rate, and开工率 of 247 sample steel mills decreased, and the profitability of steel enterprises was weak. [78] - Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products: The actual weekly output and consumption of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of steel mills and society decreased. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased significantly, while that of rebar increased. [80][82] - Transportation Cost: The main iron ore freight prices fluctuated, and the Baltic Dry Index and the Capesize Freight Index decreased. [84] 3.4.2 Conclusions and Suggestions - Iron Ore: The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price may weaken again after the rebound. [90][91] - Basis: The iron ore basis is expected to oscillate and narrow. [91]