金融期货周报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The risk of a significant adjustment or bear market in the bond market is limited, and the low - interest - rate environment will continue next year. However, short - term policy implementation may be difficult, increasing market volatility. If market sentiment improves, futures may have room to rise. In the short term, the economic slowdown supports the bond market, but the configuration is still cautious [56]. - For the shipping index, the price increase by shipping companies is inconsistent, and the upward space for freight rates is limited. The spot high of freight rates may appear in early January. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and positive - spread arbitrage opportunities between the February and April contracts [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1国债 3.1.1 This Week's Market Review - Treasury Futures Market: The trading data of treasury futures this week shows that different contracts have different price trends and trading volumes. For example, the TL2603 contract closed at 112.25, with a weekly decline of 0.39 and a decline rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 55,449,100, and the open interest was 142,795. The overall performance of the market was affected by various factors such as economic data and market sentiment [7]. - Bond Spot Market: Most spot yields of treasury bonds declined this week. The short - term yields decreased slightly, and the long - term yields first rose and then fell. US bond yields declined across the board due to rising unemployment and falling inflation in the US [34]. - Funding Situation: The inter - bank funding situation remained stable and loose this week. The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net withdrawal of 9.1 billion yuan. The funding rates fluctuated, with short - term rates showing some changes and medium - to long - term rates remaining stable [41]. - Interest Rate Derivatives: In the interest rate swap market, the yields of swap varieties fluctuated, and the liquidity expectation was stable [49]. 3.1.2 Market Analysis - Recent Market Logic: Since mid - year, the domestic economic fundamentals have weakened, and the policy is moderately loose. However, short - term policy implementation is difficult, increasing market volatility. Currently, the bond market is in the process of reasonable pricing, and futures may have room to rise if sentiment improves [56]. - This Week's Fundamental Situation: The November national economic activity data released this week was lower than expected, indicating a further slowdown in domestic demand. Industrial production, consumption, and investment all showed signs of slowdown [57][59]. - Next Week's Bond Market Outlook: After the release of economic data, attention should be paid to the cross - year funding situation. It is expected that the central bank will continue to support the market, and the liquidity will remain loose, which may support the bond market [61]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - Next week, there will be 87.75 billion yuan of open - market maturities, including reverse repurchases and MLF. The LPR quote will be announced on Monday [63]. 3.2 Shipping Index 3.2.1 Market Review - Shipping companies announced price increases, but the online opening prices were lower than expected. The EC futures first rose and then fell. For example, the MSC announced a price increase for January, but the actual online opening price was lower than the announced price, which dampened market sentiment [64]. 3.2.2 Container Shipping Market Situation - Spot Market: During the year - end contract signing season, freight rates on most ocean routes increased, especially on the European and US routes. Shipping companies announced price increases for January, but the actual opening prices were lower than the announced ones. It is expected that the spot high may appear in early January [70][71]. - Container Shipping Supply - Demand Fundamentals: On the supply side, the European container capacity in December is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The potential capacity is expected to increase with the delivery of new ships. The actual capacity is tight in the first half of December and will return in the second half. The possibility of full resumption of navigation in the Red Sea in the first quarter of next year is low, but if the cease - fire is stable, there is a high probability of gradual resumption. On the demand side, the European demand is expected to improve slowly, and the boost to container shipping prices may be limited [76][77]. 3.2.3 Market Outlook - The price increase by shipping companies is inconsistent. Considering the return of capacity in January and the attempt to resume navigation in the Red Sea, the upward space for freight rates is limited. The spot high of freight rates may appear in early January. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and positive - spread arbitrage opportunities between the February and April contracts [79].