市场洞察：掘金太阳，全球光伏产业全景解读

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the photovoltaic industry Core Insights - The global photovoltaic market is expected to show strong growth, with a projected global new installed capacity of 530GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 35.9%, and a cumulative global installed capacity reaching 2,076GW by the end of 2024 [6] - China continues to lead in global photovoltaic installations, with an expected new installed capacity of 277.6GW in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.3% [6] - By 2030, optimistic estimates suggest that global new installed capacity could reach 1,078GW, with China's new installed capacity projected at 340GW [8] Market Size - The global photovoltaic market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% from 2024 to 2030, while China's market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.4% during the same period [7] Industry Chain - The photovoltaic industry chain consists of upstream (polysilicon and silicon wafers), midstream (photovoltaic cells and modules), and downstream (centralized and distributed power stations) [11] - In 2024, China's polysilicon production is expected to reach 182,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 23.6% [11] - The production of photovoltaic cells in China is projected to be 654GW in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [13] - The production of photovoltaic modules is expected to reach 588GW in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [17] Development Trends - The report highlights a shift towards N-type silicon materials, with N-type silicon accounting for 70% of polysilicon shipments in 2024, up from 4% at the beginning of 2023 [11] - The trend towards larger and thinner photovoltaic wafers is evident, with N-type wafers expected to dominate the market, achieving a market share of 72.5% in 2024 [12] - The report notes the emergence of new technologies such as OBB and SMBB in photovoltaic modules, which contribute to cost reduction and efficiency improvement [17] Policy Direction - A series of policies have been introduced in China to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, including a shift to market-based pricing for new energy generation starting June 1, 2025 [23] - The 2024 Energy Work Guidance emphasizes increasing the share of non-fossil energy generation to 55% and aims for wind and solar power to account for over 17% of total electricity generation [24] Company Landscape - The report identifies leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, including JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, LONGi Green Energy, and Tongwei Co., which dominate the global photovoltaic module shipment rankings [18]