Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The concerns about supply - side imports and import costs from the news have largely offset the previous price - decline pressure caused by oversupply. The market focus has shifted back to the supply - demand expectations for the first quarter of next year. Considering the impact of the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere around the end of December, with the expected increase in coal demand and the expected decrease in supply, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have stopped falling, rebounded, and then rapidly strengthened. Although it is unlikely for the prices to rise sharply in the future, the previous contradiction of oversupply has been significantly alleviated through expected factors, which is beneficial for the overall price recovery. Investors should change their operation strategies in a timely manner [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: On December 18, the main contracts 2605 of coking coal and coke futures strengthened significantly with large increases, recovering all or most of the decline since December 8. The J2605 contract closed at 1743 yuan/ton, up 4.75%, with a trading volume of 18,789 lots and an open interest of 25,313 lots. The JM2605 contract closed at 1126.5 yuan/ton, up 6.07%, with a trading volume of 1,700,451 lots and an open interest of 501,331 lots [5]. - Spot Market: On December 18, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coking coal and coke showed a divergent and obvious upward trend, and the daily MACD indicators of both contracts had golden crosses. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1570 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Future Outlook - News: Starting from January 1, 2026, Indonesia will impose an export tariff on coal, but the specific tariff rate is unknown, with a previous indication of 1% - 5%. China imported about 2.4 billion tons of coal from Indonesia last year, accounting for about 44% of its total coal imports. There is an unconfirmed report that a large coal - using group will suspend the purchase of imported coal [10]. - Supply and Demand: On December 12, the second round of spot price cuts for coking coal was implemented. Independent coking enterprises have been profitable for four consecutive weeks, and the coke production of independent coking enterprises has increased for two consecutive weeks, but the growth rate has narrowed. Although the ports have been destocking coke for six consecutive weeks, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have recently stabilized and increased. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently, and the 10 - day moving average of the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 167,000 tons on December 6, an increase of 9.5% compared to the average since late November. The decline in the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has narrowed, and the steel mills' coking coal inventory has increased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Government Revenue: From January to November, the national government - funded budget revenue was 402.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The central government - funded budget revenue was 39.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, while the local government - funded budget revenue was 363.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, with the state - owned land use right transfer income decreasing by 10.7% year - on - year [12]. - Coal Production: In November 2025, the national raw coal output was 426.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. From January to November, the cumulative national raw coal output was 4.40165 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [12]. - Corporate News: Orchid Science and Technology obtained a coal exploration license for the Sitou Block in Yangcheng County; Anyang Iron and Steel sold its equity in two subsidiaries; Wanneng Power indirectly holds about 3.5% of the equity of Fusion New Energy and will deepen cooperation; as of the end of November 2025, Shanxi had built 369 intelligent coal mines, accounting for more than one - third of the country; Inner Mongolia undertakes about 795 million tons of thermal coal supply tasks this year; Indonesia will impose an export tariff on coal; the steel industry in Iran faces a serious shortage of natural gas [12][13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple charts including the spot price indexes of metallurgical coke and primary coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average hot metal output, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [15][18][19].
焦炭焦煤日评-20251219
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-12-19 02:05