油料周报-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report met market expectations, and the market continues to focus on the sowing and weather conditions of soybeans in South America. The expected increase in South American soybean production may put pressure on the supply from March to May next year [6]. - The slow progress of China's procurement of US soybeans and the state - reserve soybean auctions have affected the domestic supply. Weak demand due to breeding losses and high inventory levels also pose challenges to the market [6]. - For rapeseed, reduced imports have led to near - zero domestic rapeseed inventory, and the end of the aquaculture demand peak has weakened demand support. The potential resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports may put short - term pressure on the market [6]. - In the oil market, raw material pressure persists for soybean oil, and the slowdown in overseas biodiesel themes and the substitution effect between oils have an impact on the market. For palm oil, high inventory levels in Malaysia and China have overshadowed the impact of the seasonal production decline. For rapeseed oil, the uncertainty of Canadian imports and the potential relaxation of import restrictions have influenced the market [38][40][41]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean Meal: The market is affected by factors such as South American soybean production prospects, slow US soybean procurement in China, state - reserve auctions, weak demand, and high inventory [6]. - Rapeseed Meal: Reduced imports, the end of the aquaculture demand peak, and potential Canadian imports are the main influencing factors [6]. 3.2. Oils - Soybean Oil: Raw material pressure exists, and the slowdown in the biodiesel theme and the substitution effect between oils have affected the market. Although there is some support from the year - end demand peak, the supply - demand situation remains complex [38][39]. - Palm Oil: Malaysia's December inventory exceeded expectations, and China's high - level inventory has offset the impact of the seasonal production decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan has little short - term impact [40]. - Rapeseed Oil: High import tariffs, potential relaxation of Canadian import restrictions, reduced imports leading to inventory reduction, and demand substitution have influenced the market [41].