农产品早报-20251222

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The corn spot market shows a differentiated trend this week, with port prices falling and production area prices rising. In the short - term, the spot is expected to remain strong, while in the long - term, there is a possibility of a phased decline [3] - The starch price is expected to remain stable in the short - term due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3] - The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing, and the weak spot market is driving the futures price down. In the short - term, the futures price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price; in the long - term, it may seek the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] - For cotton, the low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and favorable Sino - US tariff reduction, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [6] - For eggs, the存栏 inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. The future decline rate of inventory depends on the elimination rhythm. If the elimination accelerates, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [11] - For apples, the national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, less than last year. The spot market has a shortage of high - quality goods, and the futures market is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15] - For pigs, the spot price fell over the weekend. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will increase, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The improvement of long - term sentiment depends on further de - stocking in the short - term [15] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun remained at 2160, while some port prices declined. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively [2] - Analysis: The short - term spot is strong, and the long - term price may decline due to potential supply pressure [3] Sugar - Price Data: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased. The import profit decreased by 107, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3000 [4] - Analysis: The short - term futures price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price, and the long - term may seek the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 35, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 154 [6] - Analysis: The demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [6] Eggs - Price Data: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the price in Hubei increased by 0.06, and the basis increased by 51.00 [10] - Analysis: The future decline rate of inventory depends on the elimination rhythm, and accelerated elimination is beneficial to the second - quarter egg price [11] Apples - Price Data: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained unchanged, and the national inventory decreased by 102.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 131.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 41.00 [14][15] - Analysis: The futures market is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15] Pigs - Price Data: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in some production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 100.00 [15] - Analysis: There may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch before the Spring Festival, and the long - term improvement depends on short - term de - stocking [15]